Option selling · NIFTY monthly · tested 2018-01 to 2026-10
45-day NIFTY monthly short straddle
As taught, 1 lot made about ₹4.11 L net over 103 cycles from 2018 to Oct-2026, with 69.9% winning cycles.
- Net P&L (1 lot at today's lot size (65))
- ₹4.11 L
- Trades
- 103
- Win rate
- 69.9%
- Max drawdown
- −₹76,809
What the video claims
About 70% winning cycles 2019-2026, rising to about 86% when India VIX is in its top quartile.
Our paraphrase. See the video for the full explanation.
How our test compares
On their Jan-2019 to Jun-2026 window we got 87 trades and 70.1% wins vs their 83 trades and 69.9%, and 5,650 net points vs their 5,952; the high-VIX win rates also lined up. Their 30-delta and 16-delta strangle variants did not match, likely due to a different delta method.
Year by year (rules as taught, after costs)
| 2018 | ₹6,892 |
| 2019 | ₹7,336 |
| 2020 | ₹74,351 |
| 2021 | ₹70,794 |
| 2022 | ₹29,185 |
| 2023 | −₹10,328 |
| 2024 | ₹66,135 |
| 2025 | ₹1.06 L |
| 2026 | ₹60,331 |
Rules we tested
Sell the ATM call and put of the NIFTY monthly expiry 45 calendar days before expiry at 15:15. Exit at a 50% premium drop (target), at 2x the credit (stop), or 21 days before expiry, checked at hourly closes; naked. Gaps we filled: holiday entries/exits move to the next trading day, ATM = strike where call and put prices are closest, first check at 09:18 so overnight gaps fill at the open.
Note: Naked position; worst cycle was Mar-2026 (about −₹69k). Results are sensitive to the exact exit day.
Method
1-minute option data, fills at the check-minute price, real broker charges incl. STT and taxes plus 0.25% slippage per order; daily mark-to-market from exchange closes.
- 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
- Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
- Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
- Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.