Option selling · NIFTY monthly · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10
Monthly iron fly with breakeven adjustments
As taught, 1 lot lost about ₹1.35 L net from 2017 to Oct-2026, with every calendar year negative.
- Net P&L (1 lot)
- −₹1.35 L
- Trades
- 106
- Win rate
- 18.9%
- Max drawdown
- −₹1.36 L
What the video claims
About +41% on capital over Jun-2025 to Aug-2026, with 13 of 15 months positive.
Our paraphrase. See the video for the full explanation.
How our test compares
For their 15-month window we got −21.3% of capital after costs (−5.9% before costs) with 6 of 14 months up, vs their +41.4% and 13 of 15; their figures were partly hand-tracked rather than backtested.
Year by year (rules as taught, after costs)
| 2017 | −₹10,773 |
| 2018 | −₹7,868 |
| 2019 | −₹9,542 |
| 2020 | −₹14,530 |
| 2021 | −₹11,800 |
| 2022 | −₹16,614 |
| 2023 | −₹16,836 |
| 2024 | −₹11,218 |
| 2025 | −₹7,470 |
| 2026 | −₹28,297 |
Rules we tested
On the 2nd trading day after monthly expiry (11:00-12:00) sell the ATM call and put of the next monthly and buy wings so max loss is about 3% of capital. If price is past a breakeven near 15:00, move the tested short one strike inside its wing and add a far hedge; undo when price returns to the original strike. Hard stop 4% of capital; skip when VIX is above about 25. Gaps we filled: hedge at ATM ± 2 wing widths, stop checked every minute, exit 15:25 on expiry day, capital ≈ 5.4% of notional.
Note: Loses even before costs in our data; the adjustments did worse than holding the plain fly.
Method
1-minute data, next-minute-open fills, real broker charges incl. STT and taxes plus 0.25% slippage; real exchange SPAN margin for capital.
- 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
- Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
- Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
- Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.