Option buying · NIFTY + BANKNIFTY monthly expiry · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10
Monthly-expiry 14:50 candle cheap option buy
As taught, the rule lost about ₹10.9 lakh over 2017–2026, losing in every year.
- Net P&L (₹10,000 premium per trade)
- −₹10.88 L
- Trades
- 221
- Win rate
- 37.6%
- Max drawdown
- −₹10.88 L
What the video claims
Hand-picked example trades doubling cheap expiry options; no backtest shown.
Our paraphrase. See the video for the full explanation.
How our test compares
The video shows only examples, so there is no total to match; over 221 qualifying expiry days the rule lost even before costs (gross about −₹4.5 lakh).
Year by year (rules as taught, after costs)
| 2017 | −₹64,000 |
| 2018 | −₹1.01 L |
| 2019 | −₹1.34 L |
| 2020 | −₹87,000 |
| 2021 | −₹1.43 L |
| 2022 | −₹1.02 L |
| 2023 | −₹73,000 |
| 2024 | −₹1.70 L |
| 2025 | −₹1.20 L |
| 2026 | −₹93,000 |
Rules we tested
On monthly expiry day, the 14:50–14:55 spot candle sets direction: green buys a call, red buys a put, choosing an out-of-the-money strike expiring that day priced under ₹2 (NIFTY) or ₹10 (BANKNIFTY). Sell at 2× or at 15:25. We assumed the nearest qualifying strike, ₹10,000 premium per trade, and shifted times by 10 minutes after the Aug-2026 session change.
Note: Per-lot brokerage on very cheap options is a large share of premium; rules taken from a written summary of the video.
Method
1-min data, buys only at minutes with real trades, real broker charges incl. taxes, ₹0.05 slippage each side.
- 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
- Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
- Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
- Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.