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09:18 ATM short straddle with MTM lock backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the 09:18 atm short straddle with mtm lock strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY weekly, 2019-02 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: ₹5.89 L after real costs. As taught, 1 lot made about ₹5.89 L net after real costs from Feb-2019 to Oct-2026, with drawdown about ₹49k.

Net after costs: ₹5.89 L
Win rate: —
Worst drawdown: −₹49,000
Reality Score: 65/100

The rules, as taught

Every weekday at 09:18 sell the ATM (by spot) call and put of the nearest weekly expiry. Each leg has a 50% stop (other leg keeps running); whole position exits at +₹15,000 or −₹8,000, and once profit reaches ₹1,500 a lock at ₹0 trails up ₹500 for every further ₹500; exit 14:45. Gaps we filled: fill at the next minute's open; when spot is missing, ATM = strike where call and put prices are closest.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: About ₹5.78 L on 1 lot from Feb-2019 to Sep-2026, 70%+ winning days, every year positive, 35-40% a year.

Using their cost settings our total was ₹5.79 L vs their ₹5.78 L (within 0.3%), though yearly splits differ by ₹20-40k. Their own screen shows 2026 at about zero, so 'every year positive' does not hold, and 35-40% a year is not reachable on the roughly ₹3 L margin per lot.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the 09:18 ATM short straddle with MTM lock strategy work?

Partly. As taught, 1 lot made about ₹5.89 L net after real costs from Feb-2019 to Oct-2026, with drawdown about ₹49k. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2019-02 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 65/100.

What is the win rate of the 09:18 ATM short straddle with MTM lock strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was ₹5.89 L with a worst drawdown of −₹49,000.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: ₹5.89 L after real costs. Over 2019-02 to 2026-10 (1 lot, lot size of the day), the net after charges was ₹5.89 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹49,000.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the 09:18 ATM short straddle with MTM lock backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself

Opens our backtester with this video's rules as taught, ready to run. Change dates or stops and see what happens. Default charges are used, so totals can differ a little from this page.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.