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Monthly iron fly, 15 days before expiry backtest: does it work after costs?
We coded the monthly iron fly, 15 days before expiry strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY monthly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: ₹71,874 after real costs. The shape holds — small, steady profits with capped risk — but only with very good fills: at 2 points of slippage per leg it loses money.
- Net after costs
- ₹71,874
- Win rate
- —
- Worst drawdown
- −₹10,917
- Reality Score
- 65/100
The rules, as taught
15 days before the monthly expiry at 09:30, sell the ATM call and put (ATM by spot) and buy the calls and puts 4 strikes (200 points) out. No stop, no adjustment. Exit at a target of 20% of the credit, else at expiry close. A second copy enters 16 days before with a 25% target.
What the video claims, and what we found
Claim: About ₹83k on one copy and ₹1.64 L on both copies from 2019 to 2025, with small drawdowns (about ₹5–10k).
With no slippage we got ₹68.9k for one copy over 2019–25 vs their ₹83.3k, and ₹1.19 L for both copies vs their ₹1.64 L; same sign and shape, 17–27% lower. Their example trade on 9-Dec-2025 matched to the rupee.
See the full results, charts and every tradeQuestions people ask
Does the Monthly iron fly, 15 days before expiry strategy work?
Partly. The shape holds — small, steady profits with capped risk — but only with very good fills: at 2 points of slippage per leg it loses money. Tested on NIFTY monthly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 65/100.
What is the win rate of the Monthly iron fly, 15 days before expiry strategy after costs?
We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was ₹71,874 with a worst drawdown of −₹10,917.
How much did it make or lose in the backtest?
Our test: ₹71,874 after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, one copy, 0.5-pt slippage per leg), the net after charges was ₹71,874 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹10,917.
What exact rules were tested?
15 days before the monthly expiry at 09:30, sell the ATM call and put (ATM by spot) and buy the calls and puts 4 strikes (200 points) out. No stop, no adjustment. Exit at a target of 20% of the credit, else at expiry close. A second copy enters 16 days before with a 25% target.
How was the Monthly iron fly, 15 days before expiry backtest done?
On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.
Run it yourself — coming soon
These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.
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