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Monthly iron fly, 15 days before expiry

Option selling · NIFTY monthly · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10

The claim

About ₹83k on one copy and ₹1.64 L on both copies from 2019 to 2025, with small drawdowns (about ₹5–10k).

Our test, after costs

₹71,874

2017-01 to 2026-10 · 1 lot, one copy, 0.5-pt slippage per leg

The shape holds — small, steady profits with capped risk — but only with very good fills: at 2 points of slippage per leg it loses money.

65DECENT

Algrow Reality Score

25/40
claim
30/30
profit
10/30
steady
Net, full test
₹71,874
Worst drawdown
−₹10,917
Trades
—
Win rate
—

Size: 1 lot, one copy, 0.5-pt slippage per leg.

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How our test compares with the video

With no slippage we got ₹68.9k for one copy over 2019–25 vs their ₹83.3k, and ₹1.19 L for both copies vs their ₹1.64 L; same sign and shape, 17–27% lower. Their example trade on 9-Dec-2025 matched to the rupee.

Worth knowing: Each trade has 8 orders, so every extra point of slippage costs about ₹500 a trade: one copy over 2017–26 made ₹99.6k at 0 points, ₹71.9k at 0.5, ₹44k at 1 and −₹11.8k at 2 points per leg.

What costs did to it

2017-01 to 2026-10, one copy, 1 lot.

  • Before costs
    ₹100k
  • 0.5-pt slippage per leg
    −₹28k
  • What you keep
    ₹72k

Costs ate 28% of the profit before costs.

The rules we tested

15 days before the monthly expiry at 09:30, sell the ATM call and put (ATM by spot) and buy the calls and puts 4 strikes (200 points) out. No stop, no adjustment. Exit at a target of 20% of the credit, else at expiry close. A second copy enters 16 days before with a 25% target.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-minute option data with guards for stale prints, broker charges incl. STT and taxes, fixed slippage per leg, lot size of the day.

  • 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
  • Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
  • Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
  • Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the Monthly iron fly, 15 days before expiry strategy work?

Partly. The shape holds — small, steady profits with capped risk — but only with very good fills: at 2 points of slippage per leg it loses money. Tested on NIFTY monthly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 65/100.

What is the win rate of the Monthly iron fly, 15 days before expiry strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was ₹71,874 with a worst drawdown of −₹10,917.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: ₹71,874 after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, one copy, 0.5-pt slippage per leg), the net after charges was ₹71,874 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹10,917.

What exact rules were tested?

15 days before the monthly expiry at 09:30, sell the ATM call and put (ATM by spot) and buy the calls and puts 4 strikes (200 points) out. No stop, no adjustment. Exit at a target of 20% of the credit, else at expiry close. A second copy enters 16 days before with a 25% target.

How was the Monthly iron fly, 15 days before expiry backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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