BUSTED BY COSTS

21-day SMA band credit spreads (stop and reverse)

Option selling · NIFTY monthly · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10

The claim

₹3.10 L

About ₹3.1 L on ₹1 L capital over 2021-2025, max drawdown about 25%.

Reality, same dates, after costs

−₹14,683

2021-01 to 2025-12 · 0% of the claim found

As taught, 1 lot made about ₹31.6k net over nearly 10 years, and lost about ₹11k over the video's own 2021-2025 window.

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim: 12/30
profit: 20/30
steady

Net, full test: ₹31,660
Worst drawdown: −₹67,387
Trades: —
Win rate: —

Size: 1 lot, lot size of the day.

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How our test compares with the video

Our signal dates match the examples on their chart and the trade count is similar, but their profit per trade is about 5x ours; even with no costs and a flat quantity we got only about +₹47k for 2021-2025 vs their ₹3.1 L.

Worth knowing: The gap to the claim could not be explained by any reasonable reading of the rules we tried.

Equity curve — rules as taught, after costs2026-10-30 · ₹31,660 · −₹28,590 from peak

Underwater: how far below its best point the account was

2017-01-06worst −₹65,3172026-10-30

If you had started with ₹1 lakh on…

Drag to pick a start date. Trading the video's rules at 1 lot, lot size of the day, not compounded. Weekly points.

2017-01-06

You'd have today

₹1.32 L

Profit / loss

+₹31,660

Lowest point

₹85,623

Honest note: ₹1 lakh may be less than the margin this needs; the result is in rupees per lot, not a % return.

What costs did to it

2017-01 to 2026-10, 1 lot.

Before costs
₹64k
Charges, STT & slippage
−₹32k
What you keep
₹32k

Costs ate 50% of the profit before costs.

Year by year — tap to dig in

1 lot, rules as taught, after costs. Tap a year, then a month.

Monthly heatmap

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026

Winning vs losing days

2,327 days with a position · about 74% green

−₹5k₹0₹5k+

BEST DAY

₹7,094

2020-04-09

WORST DAY

−₹29,223

2025-04-07

The rules we tested

At 15:20 compare NIFTY to the 21-day SMA of daily highs and of daily lows: above the upper line sell a bull put spread, below the lower line a bear call spread, in between hold; an opposite signal exits and reverses. Monthly expiry, 100-point OTM strikes, bought leg within 500 points, net credit ₹90-140; roll to next month after the 15th. Gaps we filled: farthest OTM strike when several qualify, nearest credit when none does.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

Signal on the 15:20 candle, fill at the next minute's open; real broker charges incl. STT and taxes plus 0.25% slippage; lot size of each date.

1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the 21-day SMA band credit spreads strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, 1 lot made about ₹31.6k net over nearly 10 years, and lost about ₹11k over the video's own 2021-2025 window. Tested on NIFTY monthly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 40/100.

What is the win rate of the 21-day SMA band credit spreads strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was ₹31,660 with a worst drawdown of −₹67,387.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Claimed ₹3.10 L. Reality −₹14,683. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, lot size of the day), the net after charges was ₹31,660 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹67,387.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the 21-day SMA band credit spreads backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.