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Weekly iron condor at ATM ± implied move

Option selling · NIFTY weekly · tested 2020-01 to 2026-01

The claim

About +1,800 points over Jan-2020 to Jan-2026 with ~78% winning weeks.

Our test, after costs

−₹1.40 L

2020-01 to 2026-01 · 1 lot of 65 (approx., from points)

As taught, the iron condor came to −308 points before costs and about −2,155 points (≈ −₹1.4 lakh per lot of 65) after costs over Jan-2020 to Jan-2026.

18BUSTED

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim
0/30
profit
10/30
steady
Net, full test
−₹1.40 L
Worst drawdown
—
Trades
308
Win rate
75.0%

Size: 1 lot of 65 (approx., from points).

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How our test compares with the video

Individual weeks matched closely (e.g. the Dec-2023 and Apr-2025 gap weeks), but the total was −308 points gross versus the claimed +1,800, a gap of about 6 points a week that no rule variant explained.

Worth knowing: Win rate and trade count are for the 4-trading-day entry, before costs.

The rules we tested

About five days before weekly expiry at 09:20, sell strikes at ATM ± (ATM straddle price + 100) and buy wings 100 points further out, holding to 14:30 on expiry day with no stop or target. Assumptions: '5 days' tested as 4 and 5 trading days before expiry, strikes rounded to 50, costs not stated in the video.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-minute data, signal on the 09:19 close filled at the 09:20 open, exit at the 14:30 open, real broker charges incl. STT and taxes, slippage of the larger of ₹0.5 or 1% per fill.

  • 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
  • Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
  • Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
  • Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the Weekly iron condor at ATM ± implied move strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, the iron condor came to −308 points before costs and about −2,155 points (≈ −₹1.4 lakh per lot of 65) after costs over Jan-2020 to Jan-2026. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2020-01 to 2026-01, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the Weekly iron condor at ATM ± implied move strategy after costs?

75.0% of 308 trades made money after real charges in our test (2020-01 to 2026-01). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was −₹1.40 L with a worst drawdown of —.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹1.40 L after real costs. Over 2020-01 to 2026-01 (1 lot of 65 (approx., from points)), the net after charges was −₹1.40 L and the worst fall from a peak was —.

What exact rules were tested?

About five days before weekly expiry at 09:20, sell strikes at ATM ± (ATM straddle price + 100) and buy wings 100 points further out, holding to 14:30 on expiry day with no stop or target. Assumptions: '5 days' tested as 4 and 5 trading days before expiry, strikes rounded to 50, costs not stated in the video.

How was the Weekly iron condor at ATM ± implied move backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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