BUSTED BY COSTS
Monthly iron fly with breakeven adjustments
Option selling · NIFTY monthly · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10
The claim
About +41% on capital over Jun-2025 to Aug-2026, with 13 of 15 months positive.
Our test, after costs
−₹1.35 L
2017-01 to 2026-10 · 1 lot
As taught, 1 lot lost about ₹1.35 L net from 2017 to Oct-2026, with every calendar year negative.
Algrow Reality Score
- 8/40
- claim
- 0/30
- profit
- 0/30
- steady
- Net, full test
- −₹1.35 L
- Worst drawdown
- −₹1.36 L
- Trades
- 106
- Win rate
- 18.9%
Size: 1 lot.
How our test compares with the video
For their 15-month window we got −21.3% of capital after costs (−5.9% before costs) with 6 of 14 months up, vs their +41.4% and 13 of 15; their figures were partly hand-tracked rather than backtested.
Worth knowing: Loses even before costs in our data; the adjustments did worse than holding the plain fly.
Underwater: how far below its best point the account was
If you had started with ₹1 lakh on…
Drag to pick a start date. Trading the video's rules at 1 lot, not compounded. Weekly points.
2017-01-06
You'd have today
−₹34,948
Profit / loss
−₹1.35 L
Lowest point
−₹34,948
⚠️ The account would have been wiped out at some point — ₹1 lakh was not enough to survive the drawdown.
Year by year — tap to dig in
1 lot, rules as taught, after costs. Tap a year, then a month.
Monthly heatmap
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
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| 2026 |
Winning vs losing days
1,378 days with a position · about 59% green
BEST DAY
₹11,519
2025-05-12
WORST DAY
−₹11,468
2026-09-29
The rules we tested
On the 2nd trading day after monthly expiry (11:00-12:00) sell the ATM call and put of the next monthly and buy wings so max loss is about 3% of capital. If price is past a breakeven near 15:00, move the tested short one strike inside its wing and add a far hedge; undo when price returns to the original strike. Hard stop 4% of capital; skip when VIX is above about 25. Gaps we filled: hedge at ATM ± 2 wing widths, stop checked every minute, exit 15:25 on expiry day, capital ≈ 5.4% of notional.
Method and Reality Score
1-minute data, next-minute-open fills, real broker charges incl. STT and taxes plus 0.25% slippage; real exchange SPAN margin for capital.
- 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
- Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
- Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
- Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.
Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).
Questions people ask
Does the Monthly iron fly with breakeven adjustments strategy work?
Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, 1 lot lost about ₹1.35 L net from 2017 to Oct-2026, with every calendar year negative. Tested on NIFTY monthly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 8/100.
What is the win rate of the Monthly iron fly with breakeven adjustments strategy after costs?
18.9% of 106 trades made money after real charges in our test (2017-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was −₹1.35 L with a worst drawdown of −₹1.36 L.
How much did it make or lose in the backtest?
Our test: −₹1.35 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot), the net after charges was −₹1.35 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹1.36 L.
What exact rules were tested?
On the 2nd trading day after monthly expiry (11:00-12:00) sell the ATM call and put of the next monthly and buy wings so max loss is about 3% of capital. If price is past a breakeven near 15:00, move the tested short one strike inside its wing and add a far hedge; undo when price returns to the original strike. Hard stop 4% of capital; skip when VIX is above about 25. Gaps we filled: hedge at ATM ± 2 wing widths, stop checked every minute, exit 15:25 on expiry day, capital ≈ 5.4% of notional.
How was the Monthly iron fly with breakeven adjustments backtest done?
On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.
Run it yourself — coming soon
These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.
Got another video?
Send the link or vote on the queue. We code it as taught and publish what we find.
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