BUSTED BY COSTS

Monthly iron fly with breakeven adjustments backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the monthly iron fly with breakeven adjustments strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY monthly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: −₹1.35 L after real costs. As taught, 1 lot lost about ₹1.35 L net from 2017 to Oct-2026, with every calendar year negative.

Net after costs: −₹1.35 L
Win rate: 18.9%
Worst drawdown: −₹1.36 L
Reality Score: 8/100

The rules, as taught

On the 2nd trading day after monthly expiry (11:00-12:00) sell the ATM call and put of the next monthly and buy wings so max loss is about 3% of capital. If price is past a breakeven near 15:00, move the tested short one strike inside its wing and add a far hedge; undo when price returns to the original strike. Hard stop 4% of capital; skip when VIX is above about 25. Gaps we filled: hedge at ATM ± 2 wing widths, stop checked every minute, exit 15:25 on expiry day, capital ≈ 5.4% of notional.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: About +41% on capital over Jun-2025 to Aug-2026, with 13 of 15 months positive.

For their 15-month window we got −21.3% of capital after costs (−5.9% before costs) with 6 of 14 months up, vs their +41.4% and 13 of 15; their figures were partly hand-tracked rather than backtested.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the Monthly iron fly with breakeven adjustments strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, 1 lot lost about ₹1.35 L net from 2017 to Oct-2026, with every calendar year negative. Tested on NIFTY monthly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 8/100.

What is the win rate of the Monthly iron fly with breakeven adjustments strategy after costs?

18.9% of 106 trades made money after real charges in our test (2017-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was −₹1.35 L with a worst drawdown of −₹1.36 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹1.35 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot), the net after charges was −₹1.35 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹1.36 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the Monthly iron fly with breakeven adjustments backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

Related strategy backtests

Get the next 5 fact checks first

One short note when new results are out. No spam, no tips, nothing to buy.

Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.