BUSTED BY COSTS
Monthly 15-delta strangle with wings and adjustments backtest: does it work after costs?
We coded the monthly 15-delta strangle with wings and adjustments strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY monthly, 2019-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Claimed ₹3.10 L. Reality ₹918. As taught, the rules made about ₹900 over 2021–25 and ₹70k from Jan-2019 to Oct-2026, with a ₹65k drawdown.
- Net after costs
- ₹70,407
- Win rate
- 66.0%
- Worst drawdown
- −₹64,558
- Reality Score
- 43/100
The rules, as taught
On monthly expiry day, sell next-month calls and puts near 15 delta and buy far wings. If one short doubles, book the other and re-sell at the loser's delta; if a short's delta passes 0.45, close both and re-sell at half the loser's premium. Exit at 15:15 on the third weekly expiry, no hard stop. Assumptions: one decision per day at 15:15, wings at the farthest strikes available in our data, delta from implied volatility.
What the video claims, and what we found
Claim: About ₹3.1 lakh profit over 2021–2025.
For 2021–25 we got about +₹0.9k per lot versus the claimed ₹3.1 lakh; a 15-delta monthly strangle collects only about ₹5–8k premium per lot per month, so the claim likely assumes several lots or different rules.
See the full results, charts and every tradeQuestions people ask
Does the Monthly 15-delta strangle with wings and adjustments strategy work?
Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, the rules made about ₹900 over 2021–25 and ₹70k from Jan-2019 to Oct-2026, with a ₹65k drawdown. Tested on NIFTY monthly, 2019-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 43/100.
What is the win rate of the Monthly 15-delta strangle with wings and adjustments strategy after costs?
66.0% of 91 trades made money after real charges in our test (2019-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was ₹70,407 with a worst drawdown of −₹64,558.
How much did it make or lose in the backtest?
Claimed ₹3.10 L. Reality ₹918. Over 2019-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot (lot size of the time)), the net after charges was ₹70,407 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹64,558.
What exact rules were tested?
On monthly expiry day, sell next-month calls and puts near 15 delta and buy far wings. If one short doubles, book the other and re-sell at the loser's delta; if a short's delta passes 0.45, close both and re-sell at half the loser's premium. Exit at 15:15 on the third weekly expiry, no hard stop. Assumptions: one decision per day at 15:15, wings at the farthest strikes available in our data, delta from implied volatility.
How was the Monthly 15-delta strangle with wings and adjustments backtest done?
On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.
Run it yourself — coming soon
These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.
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