BUSTED BY COSTS

Weekly iron condor at ATM ± implied move backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the weekly iron condor at atm ± implied move strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY weekly, 2020-01 to 2026-01, with real charges. Our test: −₹1.40 L after real costs. As taught, the iron condor came to −308 points before costs and about −2,155 points (≈ −₹1.4 lakh per lot of 65) after costs over Jan-2020 to Jan-2026.

Net after costs: −₹1.40 L
Win rate: 75.0%
Worst drawdown: —
Reality Score: 18/100

The rules, as taught

About five days before weekly expiry at 09:20, sell strikes at ATM ± (ATM straddle price + 100) and buy wings 100 points further out, holding to 14:30 on expiry day with no stop or target. Assumptions: '5 days' tested as 4 and 5 trading days before expiry, strikes rounded to 50, costs not stated in the video.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: About +1,800 points over Jan-2020 to Jan-2026 with ~78% winning weeks.

Individual weeks matched closely (e.g. the Dec-2023 and Apr-2025 gap weeks), but the total was −308 points gross versus the claimed +1,800, a gap of about 6 points a week that no rule variant explained.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the Weekly iron condor at ATM ± implied move strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, the iron condor came to −308 points before costs and about −2,155 points (≈ −₹1.4 lakh per lot of 65) after costs over Jan-2020 to Jan-2026. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2020-01 to 2026-01, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the Weekly iron condor at ATM ± implied move strategy after costs?

75.0% of 308 trades made money after real charges in our test (2020-01 to 2026-01). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was −₹1.40 L with a worst drawdown of —.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹1.40 L after real costs. Over 2020-01 to 2026-01 (1 lot of 65 (approx., from points)), the net after charges was −₹1.40 L and the worst fall from a peak was —.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the Weekly iron condor at ATM ± implied move backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.