BUSTED BY COSTS

BANKNIFTY initial balance reversal backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the banknifty initial balance reversal strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on BANKNIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: −₹15.27 L after real costs. As taught, 1 lot lost about ₹15.3 L after real costs over ~10 years and lost money in all 10 years.

Net after costs: −₹15.27 L
Win rate: —
Worst drawdown: −₹15.28 L
Reality Score: 8/100

The rules, as taught

Initial balance = high/low of 09:15–10:15; trade only if it is at least 0.6% wide. Buy a bullish 5-min candle crossing the IB low, short a bearish one crossing the IB high. Target 2.5× risk, minimum stop 500 points, exit 15:20.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: About 70% accuracy and +₹1.37 L in one year.

On their 2022 window we get +₹1.22 L vs their +₹1.37 L with a 51% win rate, the same as their own result. The 70% accuracy appears in none of their own tests. 2022 was the only profitable year even before costs.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the BANKNIFTY initial balance reversal strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, 1 lot lost about ₹15.3 L after real costs over ~10 years and lost money in all 10 years. Tested on BANKNIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 8/100.

What is the win rate of the BANKNIFTY initial balance reversal strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹15.27 L with a worst drawdown of −₹15.28 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹15.27 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was −₹15.27 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹15.28 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the BANKNIFTY initial balance reversal backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

Related strategy backtests

Get the next 5 fact checks first

One short note when new results are out. No spam, no tips, nothing to buy.

Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review, correction or takedown using this form. We review every request within 7 days, re-run the test where needed and update the page.