BUSTED BY COSTS

BANKNIFTY 5-min moving average + Bollinger breakout backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the banknifty 5-min moving average + bollinger breakout strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on BANKNIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: ₹14,962 after real costs. As taught, 1 lot made about ₹15k after real costs over ~10 years (₹1.5k a year) with a ₹1.25 L drawdown and 5 losing years.

Net after costs: ₹14,962
Win rate: 41.0%
Worst drawdown: −₹1.25 L
Reality Score: 36/100

The rules, as taught

5-min chart. A candle closing above both the 200 SMA (of HLC/3) and the upper Bollinger band arms a buy-stop at the 24-bar highest close + 2.5×ATR(30), valid 1 hour. Stop 2.5×ATR(500), exit 15:15, up to 3 trades a day. Short is the mirror.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: About 20% a year after costs, every year positive.

Before costs our trades line up with theirs (22 of their 25 trades in 2025 on the same days). The edge is ≈37 points a trade; today's costs are ≈34 points.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the BANKNIFTY 5-min moving average + Bollinger breakout strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, 1 lot made about ₹15k after real costs over ~10 years (₹1.5k a year) with a ₹1.25 L drawdown and 5 losing years. Tested on BANKNIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 36/100.

What is the win rate of the BANKNIFTY 5-min moving average + Bollinger breakout strategy after costs?

41.0% of 404 trades made money after real charges in our test (2017-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was ₹14,962 with a worst drawdown of −₹1.25 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: ₹14,962 after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was ₹14,962 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹1.25 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the BANKNIFTY 5-min moving average + Bollinger breakout backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

Related strategy backtests

Get the next 5 fact checks first

One short note when new results are out. No spam, no tips, nothing to buy.

Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review, correction or takedown using this form. We review every request within 7 days, re-run the test where needed and update the page.