BUSTED BY COSTS

BANKNIFTY 5-min moving average + Bollinger breakout

Futures · BANKNIFTY futures · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10

The claim

About 20% a year after costs, every year positive.

Our test, after costs

₹14,962

2017-01 to 2026-10 · 1 lot, historical lot sizes

As taught, 1 lot made about ₹15k after real costs over ~10 years (₹1.5k a year) with a ₹1.25 L drawdown and 5 losing years.

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim: 10/30
profit: 18/30
steady

Net, full test: ₹14,962
Worst drawdown: −₹1.25 L
Trades: 404
Win rate: 41.0%

Size: 1 lot, historical lot sizes.

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How our test compares with the video

Before costs our trades line up with theirs (22 of their 25 trades in 2025 on the same days). The edge is ≈37 points a trade; today's costs are ≈34 points.

Worth knowing: The video's cost model uses older, lower STT and very small slippage.

📈 Equity curve rules as taught, after costs2026-10-30 · ₹14,962 · −₹47,143 from peak

Underwater: how far below its best point the account was

2017-01-13worst −₹1.25 L2026-10-30

🎯 If you had started with ₹1 lakh on…

Drag to pick a start date. Trading the video's rules at 1 lot, historical lot sizes, not compounded. Weekly points.

2017-01-13

You'd have today

₹1.15 L

Profit / loss

+₹14,962

Lowest point

₹37,416

Ouch: at the worst point you'd have been down 63%.

📅 Year by year — tap to dig in

Green years, red years — no hiding. 1 lot, rules as taught, after costs. Tap a year, then a month.

🔥 Monthly heatmap

Every month in rupees (cells in ₹ thousand). 🏆 best and 💥 worst month are outlined. Tap a cell for its days.

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
’17													−37k
’18													+960
’19													+58k
’20													−38k
’21													+68k
’22													−34k
’23													+20k
’24													−34k
’25													−47k
’26													+58k

−43k+43k

🏆 Best month Mar 2026 ₹43k · 💥 Worst month Mar 2020 −₹41k

🎲 Winning vs losing days

396 days with a position · about 49% green

−₹20k₹0₹20k+

BEST DAY

₹30,980

2019-09-20

WORST DAY

−₹30,296

2020-03-13

The rules we tested

5-min chart. A candle closing above both the 200 SMA (of HLC/3) and the upper Bollinger band arms a buy-stop at the 24-bar highest close + 2.5×ATR(30), valid 1 hour. Stop 2.5×ATR(500), exit 15:15, up to 3 trades a day. Short is the mirror.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-minute futures data, front-month contract rolled near expiry, real NSE lot size of each date, real broker charges incl. STT (0.05% from Apr-2026), exchange fees, stamp duty and GST, plus small slippage; signals on candle close.

1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the BANKNIFTY 5-min moving average + Bollinger breakout strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, 1 lot made about ₹15k after real costs over ~10 years (₹1.5k a year) with a ₹1.25 L drawdown and 5 losing years. Tested on BANKNIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 36/100.

What is the win rate of the BANKNIFTY 5-min moving average + Bollinger breakout strategy after costs?

41.0% of 404 trades made money after real charges in our test (2017-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was ₹14,962 with a worst drawdown of −₹1.25 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: ₹14,962 after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was ₹14,962 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹1.25 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the BANKNIFTY 5-min moving average + Bollinger breakout backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review, correction or takedown using this form. We review every request within 7 days, re-run the test where needed and update the page.