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BUSTED BY COSTS

NIFTY 45-min first candle breakout, long only

Futures · NIFTY futures · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10

The claim

About +78% in ~1.5 years on the index, before costs.

Our test, after costs

−₹1.87 L

2017-01 to 2026-10 · 1 lot, historical lot sizes

As taught on futures, 1 lot lost about ₹1.87 L after real costs over ~10 years, with a ₹3.7 L drawdown.

18BUSTED

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim
0/30
profit
10/30
steady
Net, full test
−₹1.87 L
Worst drawdown
−₹3.70 L
Trades
1,060
Win rate
—

Size: 1 lot, historical lot sizes.

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How our test compares with the video

On their spot window without costs we get ₹79.8k vs their ₹78.8k. On futures costs are about ₹970 a trade vs ~₹790 average gross edge, and long futures also pay carry.

Worth knowing: Same rules also lose on BANKNIFTY (−₹2.6 L).

📈 Equity curve rules as taught, after costs2026-10-30 · −₹1.87 L · −₹3.60 L from peak

Underwater: how far below its best point the account was

2017-01-06worst −₹3.60 L2026-10-30

🎯 If you had started with ₹1 lakh on…

Drag to pick a start date. Trading the video's rules at 1 lot, historical lot sizes, not compounded. Weekly points.

2017-01-06

You'd have today

−₹84,923

Profit / loss

−₹1.85 L

Lowest point

−₹85,678

⚠️ The account would have been wiped out at some point — ₹1 lakh was not enough to survive the drawdown.

📅 Year by year — tap to dig in

Green years, red years — no hiding. 1 lot, rules as taught, after costs. Tap a year, then a month.

−₹45k’17−₹4k’18+₹67k’19+₹39k’20+₹92k’21🏆−₹1.4L’22💥−₹48k’23+₹12k’24−₹76k’25−₹84k’26

🔥 Monthly heatmap

Every month in rupees (cells in ₹ thousand). 🏆 best and 💥 worst month are outlined. Tap a cell for its days.

JFMAMJJASONDYear
’17−45k
’18−4k
’19+67k
’20+39k
’21+92k
’22−1.4L
’23−48k
’24+12k
’25−76k
’26−84k
−67k+67k

🏆 Best month Apr 2026 ₹67k💥 Worst month Mar 2020 −₹51k

🎲 Winning vs losing days

1,697 days with a position · about 38% green

−₹19k₹0₹19k+

BEST DAY

₹59,800

2026-04-08

WORST DAY

−₹30,420

2020-05-04

The rules we tested

Level = high of the first 45-min candle. If a later 45-min candle closes above it, buy at the next candle's open. Hold overnight; exit after two red 45-min candles or a 1% stop. One trade a day.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-minute futures data, front-month contract rolled near expiry, real NSE lot size of each date, real broker charges incl. STT (0.05% from Apr-2026), exchange fees, stamp duty and GST, plus small slippage; signals on candle close.

  • 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
  • Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
  • Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
  • Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the NIFTY 45-min first candle breakout, long only strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught on futures, 1 lot lost about ₹1.87 L after real costs over ~10 years, with a ₹3.7 L drawdown. Tested on NIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the NIFTY 45-min first candle breakout, long only strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹1.87 L with a worst drawdown of −₹3.70 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹1.87 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was −₹1.87 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹3.70 L.

What exact rules were tested?

Level = high of the first 45-min candle. If a later 45-min candle closes above it, buy at the next candle's open. Hold overnight; exit after two red 45-min candles or a 1% stop. One trade a day.

How was the NIFTY 45-min first candle breakout, long only backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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