BUSTED BY COSTS
NIFTY fade small gap-ups
Futures · NIFTY futures · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10
The claim
A clear positive edge (about +46R) on the spot index over ~6.5 years.
Our test, after costs
−₹4.07 L
2017-01 to 2026-10 · 1 lot, historical lot sizes
As taught on futures, 1 lot lost about ₹4.07 L after real costs over ~10 years; before costs it was only +₹4.9k.
Algrow Reality Score
- 8/40
- claim
- 0/30
- profit
- 2/30
- steady
- Net, full test
- −₹4.07 L
- Worst drawdown
- −₹4.07 L
- Trades
- 469
- Win rate
- 51.2%
Size: 1 lot, historical lot sizes.
How our test compares with the video
On the spot index we reproduce the edge (+58R vs their +46R). On futures it shrinks from ~7 to ~1.6 points a trade because of basis moves, against ≈15–20 points of costs.
Worth knowing: The spot index cannot be traded at its opening price.
Underwater: how far below its best point the account was
🎯 If you had started with ₹1 lakh on…
Drag to pick a start date. Trading the video's rules at 1 lot, historical lot sizes, not compounded. Weekly points.
2017-01-05
You'd have today
−₹3.03 L
Profit / loss
−₹4.03 L
Lowest point
−₹3.03 L
⚠️ The account would have been wiped out at some point — ₹1 lakh was not enough to survive the drawdown.
📅 Year by year — tap to dig in
Green years, red years — no hiding. 1 lot, rules as taught, after costs. Tap a year, then a month.
🔥 Monthly heatmap
Every month in rupees (cells in ₹ thousand). 🏆 best and 💥 worst month are outlined. Tap a cell for its days.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’17 | −49k | ||||||||||||
| ’18 | −64k | ||||||||||||
| ’19 | −35k | ||||||||||||
| ’20 | −6k | ||||||||||||
| ’21 | −32k | ||||||||||||
| ’22 | +20k | ||||||||||||
| ’23 | −40k | ||||||||||||
| ’24 | −37k | ||||||||||||
| ’25 | −99k | ||||||||||||
| ’26 | −65k |
🏆 Best month Jan 2022 ₹12k · 💥 Worst month Apr 2025 −₹23k
🎲 Winning vs losing days
469 days with a position · about 41% green
BEST DAY
₹9,916
2025-06-24
WORST DAY
−₹14,613
2026-03-25
The rules we tested
If NIFTY opens 0.25–0.50% above the previous close and the first 5-min candle does not touch that close, short at 09:20. Target = previous close, stop = same distance above, exit 15:15.
Method and Reality Score
1-minute futures data, front-month contract rolled near expiry, real NSE lot size of each date, real broker charges incl. STT (0.05% from Apr-2026), exchange fees, stamp duty and GST, plus small slippage; signals on candle close.
- 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
- Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
- Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
- Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.
Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).
Questions people ask
Does the NIFTY fade small gap-ups strategy work?
Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught on futures, 1 lot lost about ₹4.07 L after real costs over ~10 years; before costs it was only +₹4.9k. Tested on NIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 10/100.
What is the win rate of the NIFTY fade small gap-ups strategy after costs?
51.2% of 469 trades made money after real charges in our test (2017-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was −₹4.07 L with a worst drawdown of −₹4.07 L.
How much did it make or lose in the backtest?
Our test: −₹4.07 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was −₹4.07 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹4.07 L.
What exact rules were tested?
If NIFTY opens 0.25–0.50% above the previous close and the first 5-min candle does not touch that close, short at 09:20. Target = previous close, stop = same distance above, exit 15:15.
How was the NIFTY fade small gap-ups backtest done?
On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.
Run it yourself — coming soon
These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.
Got another video?
Send the link or vote on the queue. We code it as taught and publish what we find.
Request a fact check
Similar fact checks
- BUSTED BY COSTS10
NIFTY 15-min 9/21 EMA crossover
−₹10.61 L
- BUSTED BY COSTS10
NIFTY 15-min Supertrend + Stochastic RSI
−₹13.31 L
- BUSTED BY COSTS8
NIFTY 30-minute opening range breakout
−₹16.32 L
- BUSTED BY COSTS8
NIFTY overnight (buy close, sell next open)
−₹18.57 L
- BUSTED BY COSTS18
NIFTY 45-min first candle breakout, long only
−₹1.87 L
- BUSTED BY COSTS20
NIFTY hourly Supertrend flip with OTM hedge
−₹91,208
- BUSTED BY COSTS8
BANKNIFTY 15-minute opening range breakout
−₹22.93 L
- BUSTED BY COSTS8
BANKNIFTY initial balance reversal
−₹15.27 L
Short version for search: NIFTY fade small gap-ups backtest — does it work?
Get the next 5 fact checks first
One short note when new results are out. No spam, no tips, nothing to buy.
Creator? Request a correction or takedown
Comments
No comments yet. Traded this setup? Tell others what happened.
Be civil. No tips groups, phone numbers or promotions. Comments with 3 reports are hidden for review. Opinions here are users' own, not advice.