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BUSTED BY COSTS

NIFTY hourly Supertrend flip with OTM hedge

Futures · NIFTY futures · tested 2017-03 to 2026-10

The claim

Several lakh rupees a year on 2 lots with about ₹2.2 L capital.

Our test, after costs

−₹91,208

2017-03 to 2026-10 · 1 lot, historical lot sizes

As taught (with the pause and the hedge), 1 lot lost about ₹91k after real costs from Mar-2017 to Oct-2026, with a ₹4.3 L drawdown.

20BUSTED

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim
0/30
profit
12/30
steady
Net, full test
−₹91,208
Worst drawdown
−₹4.30 L
Trades
—
Win rate
—

Size: 1 lot, historical lot sizes.

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How our test compares with the video

Signals match the creator's sheet almost trade for trade. The gap comes from spot points (futures lose ~15 points a trade more), costs of ~₹900 per lot per round trip vs the ₹350 assumed, and 4 losing trades left out of their 2021 sheet.

Worth knowing: 2021 alone comes close to the claim; 2026 is down about ₹1.76 L so far.

📈 Equity curve rules as taught, after costs2026-10-30 · −₹91,208 · −₹4.17 L from peak

Underwater: how far below its best point the account was

2017-03-03worst −₹4.19 L2026-10-30

🎯 If you had started with ₹1 lakh on…

Drag to pick a start date. Trading the video's rules at 1 lot, historical lot sizes, not compounded. Weekly points.

2017-03-03

You'd have today

₹17,322

Profit / loss

−₹82,678

Lowest point

−₹59,153

⚠️ The account would have been wiped out at some point — ₹1 lakh was not enough to survive the drawdown.

📅 Year by year — tap to dig in

Green years, red years — no hiding. 1 lot, rules as taught, after costs. Tap a year, then a month.

−₹19k’17+₹15k’18−₹93k’19+₹1.8L’20🏆+₹26k’21+₹60k’22+₹55k’23−₹92k’24−₹49k’25−₹1.8L’26💥

🔥 Monthly heatmap

Every month in rupees (cells in ₹ thousand). 🏆 best and 💥 worst month are outlined. Tap a cell for its days.

JFMAMJJASONDYear
’17−19k
’18+15k
’19−93k
’20+1.8L
’21+26k
’22+60k
’23+55k
’24−92k
’25−49k
’26−1.8L
−1.4L+1.4L

🏆 Best month Apr 2025 ₹90k💥 Worst month May 2025 −₹1.4L

🎲 Winning vs losing days

2,120 days with a position · about 60% green

−₹25k₹0₹25k+

BEST DAY

₹62,576

2020-03-12

WORST DAY

−₹99,792

2020-03-19

The rules we tested

Hourly Supertrend(10,2), always in: long when it turns up, short when it turns down. After a trend that captured ≥2% sit out 30 candles. Each futures position is hedged with a ~300-point OTM monthly option.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-minute futures data, front-month contract rolled near expiry, real NSE lot size of each date, real broker charges incl. STT (0.05% from Apr-2026), exchange fees, stamp duty and GST, plus small slippage; signals on candle close.

  • 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
  • Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
  • Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
  • Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the NIFTY hourly Supertrend flip with OTM hedge strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught (with the pause and the hedge), 1 lot lost about ₹91k after real costs from Mar-2017 to Oct-2026, with a ₹4.3 L drawdown. Tested on NIFTY futures, 2017-03 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 20/100.

What is the win rate of the NIFTY hourly Supertrend flip with OTM hedge strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹91,208 with a worst drawdown of −₹4.30 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹91,208 after real costs. Over 2017-03 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was −₹91,208 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹4.30 L.

What exact rules were tested?

Hourly Supertrend(10,2), always in: long when it turns up, short when it turns down. After a trend that captured ≥2% sit out 30 candles. Each futures position is hedged with a ~300-point OTM monthly option.

How was the NIFTY hourly Supertrend flip with OTM hedge backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Send the link or vote on the queue. We code it as taught and publish what we find.

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