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NIFTY hourly Supertrend flip with OTM hedge backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the nifty hourly supertrend flip with otm hedge strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY futures, 2017-03 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: −₹91,208 after real costs. As taught (with the pause and the hedge), 1 lot lost about ₹91k after real costs from Mar-2017 to Oct-2026, with a ₹4.3 L drawdown.

Net after costs: −₹91,208
Win rate: —
Worst drawdown: −₹4.30 L
Reality Score: 20/100

The rules, as taught

Hourly Supertrend(10,2), always in: long when it turns up, short when it turns down. After a trend that captured ≥2% sit out 30 candles. Each futures position is hedged with a ~300-point OTM monthly option.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: Several lakh rupees a year on 2 lots with about ₹2.2 L capital.

Signals match the creator's sheet almost trade for trade. The gap comes from spot points (futures lose ~15 points a trade more), costs of ~₹900 per lot per round trip vs the ₹350 assumed, and 4 losing trades left out of their 2021 sheet.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the NIFTY hourly Supertrend flip with OTM hedge strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught (with the pause and the hedge), 1 lot lost about ₹91k after real costs from Mar-2017 to Oct-2026, with a ₹4.3 L drawdown. Tested on NIFTY futures, 2017-03 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 20/100.

What is the win rate of the NIFTY hourly Supertrend flip with OTM hedge strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹91,208 with a worst drawdown of −₹4.30 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹91,208 after real costs. Over 2017-03 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was −₹91,208 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹4.30 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the NIFTY hourly Supertrend flip with OTM hedge backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review, correction or takedown using this form. We review every request within 7 days, re-run the test where needed and update the page.