BUSTED BY COSTS

NIFTY 15-min 9/21 EMA crossover backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the nifty 15-min 9/21 ema crossover strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: −₹10.61 L after real costs. As taught on futures, 1 lot lost about ₹10.6 L after real costs over ~10 years; every year lost except 2020.

Net after costs: −₹10.61 L
Win rate: —
Worst drawdown: −₹10.80 L
Reality Score: 10/100

The rules, as taught

15-min chart, EMA 9 vs EMA 21. Cross up → long, cross down → short, stop-and-reverse on candle close. Flat at 15:15, no overnight.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: About +10,800 NIFTY points from 2020 to mid-2026, every year positive, before costs.

On the spot index without costs we get +10,593 points vs their +10,856, so the rules reproduce. On futures the edge is ~6 points a trade against ~14–18 points of round-trip costs.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the NIFTY 15-min 9/21 EMA crossover strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught on futures, 1 lot lost about ₹10.6 L after real costs over ~10 years; every year lost except 2020. Tested on NIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 10/100.

What is the win rate of the NIFTY 15-min 9/21 EMA crossover strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹10.61 L with a worst drawdown of −₹10.80 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹10.61 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was −₹10.61 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹10.80 L.

What exact rules were tested?

15-min chart, EMA 9 vs EMA 21. Cross up → long, cross down → short, stop-and-reverse on candle close. Flat at 15:15, no overnight.

How was the NIFTY 15-min 9/21 EMA crossover backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review, correction or takedown using this form. We review every request within 7 days, re-run the test where needed and update the page.