BUSTED BY COSTS

NIFTY overnight (buy close, sell next open) backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the nifty overnight (buy close, sell next open) strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: −₹18.57 L after real costs. As taught on futures, buying at the close and selling at the next open lost about ₹18.6 L on 1 lot after costs over ~10 years, every year negative.

Net after costs: −₹18.57 L
Win rate: —
Worst drawdown: −₹18.70 L
Reality Score: 8/100

The rules, as taught

Buy NIFTY at the close and sell at the next day's open, every day. The video also pairs it with shorting from open to close.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: Holding overnight made about +40,000 NIFTY points over 2015–24 while intraday lost.

On the spot index the pattern reproduces (+32,668 points 2017–24). On futures most of it disappears: the spot open uses a stale price that cannot be traded, leaving ~1.5 points a night vs ~14 points of costs.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the NIFTY overnight strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught on futures, buying at the close and selling at the next open lost about ₹18.6 L on 1 lot after costs over ~10 years, every year negative. Tested on NIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 8/100.

What is the win rate of the NIFTY overnight strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹18.57 L with a worst drawdown of −₹18.70 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹18.57 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was −₹18.57 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹18.70 L.

What exact rules were tested?

Buy NIFTY at the close and sell at the next day's open, every day. The video also pairs it with shorting from open to close.

How was the NIFTY overnight backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review, correction or takedown using this form. We review every request within 7 days, re-run the test where needed and update the page.