BUSTED BY COSTS

BANKNIFTY 15-min Bollinger band rejection

Q: Does the BANKNIFTY 15-min Bollinger band rejection strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, 1 lot lost about ₹2.83 L after real costs over ~10 years and lost money every year; even before costs it was slightly negative. Tested on BANKNIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 8/100.

Q: What is the win rate of the BANKNIFTY 15-min Bollinger band rejection strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹2.83 L with a worst drawdown of −₹2.83 L.

Q: How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹2.83 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was −₹2.83 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹2.83 L.

Q: How was the BANKNIFTY 15-min Bollinger band rejection backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Futures · BANKNIFTY futures · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10

The claim

About ₹47k net on 1 lot over two years with a 65% win rate.

Our test, after costs

−₹2.83 L

2017-01 to 2026-10 · 1 lot, historical lot sizes

As taught, 1 lot lost about ₹2.83 L after real costs over ~10 years and lost money every year; even before costs it was slightly negative.

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim: 0/30
profit: 0/30
steady

Net, full test: −₹2.83 L
Worst drawdown: −₹2.83 L
Trades: 378
Win rate: —

Size: 1 lot, historical lot sizes.

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How our test compares with the video

On their two-year window we get −₹53k after costs (₹32k–58k before costs depending on how the time window is read) vs their +₹46.8k. Their charges assume older STT (~₹380 a trade vs ~₹1,130 now).

Worth knowing: The two years shown are the best stretch of the decade.

📈 Equity curve rules as taught, after costs2026-10-28 · −₹2.83 L · −₹2.83 L from peak

Underwater: how far below its best point the account was

2017-01-04worst −₹2.83 L2026-10-28

🎯 If you had started with ₹1 lakh on…

Drag to pick a start date. Trading the video's rules at 1 lot, historical lot sizes, not compounded. Weekly points.

2017-01-04

You'd have today

−₹1.80 L

Profit / loss

−₹2.80 L

Lowest point

−₹1.80 L

⚠️ The account would have been wiped out at some point — ₹1 lakh was not enough to survive the drawdown.

📅 Year by year — tap to dig in

Green years, red years — no hiding. 1 lot, rules as taught, after costs. Tap a year, then a month.

🔥 Monthly heatmap

Every month in rupees (cells in ₹ thousand). 🏆 best and 💥 worst month are outlined. Tap a cell for its days.

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
’17													−12k
’18													−23k
’19													−33k
’20													−30k
’21													−58k
’22													−22k
’23													−18k
’24													−21k
’25													−43k
’26													−23k

−20k+20k

🏆 Best month Feb 2022 ₹20k · 💥 Worst month Feb 2025 −₹17k

🎲 Winning vs losing days

378 days with a position · about 41% green

−₹8k₹0₹8k+

BEST DAY

₹8,757

2020-11-26

WORST DAY

−₹5,975

2025-12-02

The rules we tested

15-min chart. Long when a candle dips below the lower Bollinger band, closes back above it green and below the middle band with ADX(14) < 25; short is the mirror. Signals 12:00–14:00, one trade a day. Stop ₹4,500/lot, target ₹11,000/lot, exit at the middle band or 15:20.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-minute futures data, front-month contract rolled near expiry, real NSE lot size of each date, real broker charges incl. STT (0.05% from Apr-2026), exchange fees, stamp duty and GST, plus small slippage; signals on candle close.

1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the BANKNIFTY 15-min Bollinger band rejection strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, 1 lot lost about ₹2.83 L after real costs over ~10 years and lost money every year; even before costs it was slightly negative. Tested on BANKNIFTY futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 8/100.

What is the win rate of the BANKNIFTY 15-min Bollinger band rejection strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹2.83 L with a worst drawdown of −₹2.83 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹2.83 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was −₹2.83 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹2.83 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the BANKNIFTY 15-min Bollinger band rejection backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review, correction or takedown using this form. We review every request within 7 days, re-run the test where needed and update the page.