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BUSTED BY COSTS

Stock-vs-index ratio trend (pair) trading

Futures · Stock futures · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10

The claim

Example trades of about +15% on a pair in a few months.

Our test, after costs

−₹40.72 L

2017-01 to 2026-10 · ₹10 L per leg, stock and index futures

As taught, the video's three pairs lost about ₹40.7 L from 2017 to 2026 at ₹10 L per leg, losing every year.

8BUSTED

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim
0/30
profit
0/30
steady
Net, full test
−₹40.72 L
Worst drawdown
−₹42.87 L
Trades
—
Win rate
—

Size: ₹10 L per leg, stock and index futures.

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How our test compares with the video

The hand-picked example trades partly reproduce, but the rule loses across all 334 F&O stocks against NIFTY and on 77 sector pairs, even before costs. These pairs tend to snap back, so following the ratio's trend buys high and sells low.

Worth knowing: Each flip costs about 0.27% of the value traded.

📈 Equity curve rules as taught, after costs2026-10-19 · −₹40.72 L · −₹41.73 L from peak

Underwater: how far below its best point the account was

2016-12-02worst −₹42.86 L2026-10-19

🎯 If you had started with ₹1 lakh on…

Drag to pick a start date. Trading the video's rules at ₹10 L per leg, stock and index futures, not compounded. Weekly points.

2016-12-02

You'd have today

−₹39.72 L

Profit / loss

−₹40.72 L

Lowest point

−₹40.85 L

⚠️ The account would have been wiped out at some point — ₹1 lakh was not enough to survive the drawdown.

📅 Year by year — tap to dig in

Green years, red years — no hiding. 1 lot, rules as taught, after costs. Tap a year, then a month.

₹0’16−₹3.1L’17−₹9.7L’18💥−₹6.4L’19−₹1.9L’20−₹1.6L’21−₹4.1L’22−₹5.2L’23−₹3.6L’24−₹4.4L’25−₹82k’26

🔥 Monthly heatmap

Every month in rupees (cells in ₹ thousand). 🏆 best and 💥 worst month are outlined. Tap a cell for its days.

JFMAMJJASONDYear
’160
’17−3.1L
’18−9.7L
’19−6.4L
’20−1.9L
’21−1.6L
’22−4.1L
’23−5.2L
’24−3.6L
’25−4.4L
’26−82k
−3.2L+3.2L

🏆 Best month Sep 2021 ₹2.6L💥 Worst month Oct 2018 −₹3.2L

🎲 Winning vs losing days

2,414 days with a position · about 39% green

−₹60k₹0₹60k+

BEST DAY

₹2.05 L

2021-09-14

WORST DAY

−₹1.37 L

2020-03-20

The rules we tested

Plot the ratio of stock A to stock/index B with a 100-period average. Ratio above the average → long A, short B (equal rupee value); below → the reverse. Flip when it crosses back. Pairs with correlation ≥ 0.85.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-minute futures data, front-month contract rolled near expiry, real NSE lot size of each date, real broker charges incl. STT (0.05% from Apr-2026), exchange fees, stamp duty and GST, plus small slippage; signals on candle close.

  • 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
  • Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
  • Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
  • Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the Stock-vs-index ratio trend trading strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, the video's three pairs lost about ₹40.7 L from 2017 to 2026 at ₹10 L per leg, losing every year. Tested on Stock futures, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 8/100.

What is the win rate of the Stock-vs-index ratio trend trading strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹40.72 L with a worst drawdown of −₹42.87 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹40.72 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (₹10 L per leg, stock and index futures), the net after charges was −₹40.72 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹42.87 L.

What exact rules were tested?

Plot the ratio of stock A to stock/index B with a 100-period average. Ratio above the average → long A, short B (equal rupee value); below → the reverse. Flip when it crosses back. Pairs with correlation ≥ 0.85.

How was the Stock-vs-index ratio trend trading backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

Got another video?

Send the link or vote on the queue. We code it as taught and publish what we find.

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