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45-day NIFTY monthly short straddle backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the 45-day nifty monthly short straddle strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY monthly, 2018-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: ₹4.11 L after real costs. As taught, 1 lot made about ₹4.11 L net over 103 cycles from 2018 to Oct-2026, with 69.9% winning cycles.

Net after costs
₹4.11 L
Win rate
69.9%
Worst drawdown
−₹76,809
Reality Score
97/100

The rules, as taught

Sell the ATM call and put of the NIFTY monthly expiry 45 calendar days before expiry at 15:15. Exit at a 50% premium drop (target), at 2x the credit (stop), or 21 days before expiry, checked at hourly closes; naked. Gaps we filled: holiday entries/exits move to the next trading day, ATM = strike where call and put prices are closest, first check at 09:18 so overnight gaps fill at the open.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: About 70% winning cycles 2019-2026, rising to about 86% when India VIX is in its top quartile.

On their Jan-2019 to Jun-2026 window we got 87 trades and 70.1% wins vs their 83 trades and 69.9%, and 5,650 net points vs their 5,952; the high-VIX win rates also lined up. Their 30-delta and 16-delta strangle variants did not match, likely due to a different delta method.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the 45-day NIFTY monthly short straddle strategy work?

In our test the rules as taught roughly hold up. As taught, 1 lot made about ₹4.11 L net over 103 cycles from 2018 to Oct-2026, with 69.9% winning cycles. Tested on NIFTY monthly, 2018-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 97/100.

What is the win rate of the 45-day NIFTY monthly short straddle strategy after costs?

69.9% of 103 trades made money after real charges in our test (2018-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was ₹4.11 L with a worst drawdown of −₹76,809.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: ₹4.11 L after real costs. Over 2018-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot at today's lot size (65)), the net after charges was ₹4.11 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹76,809.

What exact rules were tested?

Sell the ATM call and put of the NIFTY monthly expiry 45 calendar days before expiry at 15:15. Exit at a 50% premium drop (target), at 2x the credit (stop), or 21 days before expiry, checked at hourly closes; naked. Gaps we filled: holiday entries/exits move to the next trading day, ATM = strike where call and put prices are closest, first check at 09:18 so overnight gaps fill at the open.

How was the 45-day NIFTY monthly short straddle backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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