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45-day NIFTY monthly short straddle

Option selling · NIFTY monthly · tested 2018-01 to 2026-10

The claim

About 70% winning cycles 2019-2026, rising to about 86% when India VIX is in its top quartile.

Our test, after costs

₹4.11 L

2018-01 to 2026-10 · 1 lot at today's lot size (65)

As taught, 1 lot made about ₹4.11 L net over 103 cycles from 2018 to Oct-2026, with 69.9% winning cycles.

97SOLID

Algrow Reality Score

40/40
claim
30/30
profit
27/30
steady
Net, full test
₹4.11 L
Worst drawdown
−₹76,809
Trades
103
Win rate
69.9%

Size: 1 lot at today's lot size (65).

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How our test compares with the video

On their Jan-2019 to Jun-2026 window we got 87 trades and 70.1% wins vs their 83 trades and 69.9%, and 5,650 net points vs their 5,952; the high-VIX win rates also lined up. Their 30-delta and 16-delta strangle variants did not match, likely due to a different delta method.

Worth knowing: Naked position; worst cycle was Mar-2026 (about −₹69k). Results are sensitive to the exact exit day.

Equity curve — rules as taught, after costs2026-10-06 · ₹4.11 L · −₹15,281 from peak

Underwater: how far below its best point the account was

2018-01-12worst −₹65,1412026-10-06

If you had started with ₹1 lakh on…

Drag to pick a start date. Trading the video's rules at 1 lot at today's lot size (65), not compounded. Weekly points.

2018-01-12

You'd have today

₹5.10 L

Profit / loss

+₹4.10 L

Lowest point

₹76,048

Honest note: ₹1 lakh may be less than the margin this needs; the result is in rupees per lot, not a % return.

Year by year — tap to dig in

1 lot, rules as taught, after costs. Tap a year, then a month.

Monthly heatmap

JFMAMJJASOND
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026

Winning vs losing days

1,774 days with a position · about 43% green

−₹16k₹0₹16k+

BEST DAY

₹23,806

2026-02-03

WORST DAY

−₹30,067

2026-03-04

The rules we tested

Sell the ATM call and put of the NIFTY monthly expiry 45 calendar days before expiry at 15:15. Exit at a 50% premium drop (target), at 2x the credit (stop), or 21 days before expiry, checked at hourly closes; naked. Gaps we filled: holiday entries/exits move to the next trading day, ATM = strike where call and put prices are closest, first check at 09:18 so overnight gaps fill at the open.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-minute option data, fills at the check-minute price, real broker charges incl. STT and taxes plus 0.25% slippage per order; daily mark-to-market from exchange closes.

  • 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
  • Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
  • Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
  • Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the 45-day NIFTY monthly short straddle strategy work?

In our test the rules as taught roughly hold up. As taught, 1 lot made about ₹4.11 L net over 103 cycles from 2018 to Oct-2026, with 69.9% winning cycles. Tested on NIFTY monthly, 2018-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 97/100.

What is the win rate of the 45-day NIFTY monthly short straddle strategy after costs?

69.9% of 103 trades made money after real charges in our test (2018-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was ₹4.11 L with a worst drawdown of −₹76,809.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: ₹4.11 L after real costs. Over 2018-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot at today's lot size (65)), the net after charges was ₹4.11 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹76,809.

What exact rules were tested?

Sell the ATM call and put of the NIFTY monthly expiry 45 calendar days before expiry at 15:15. Exit at a 50% premium drop (target), at 2x the credit (stop), or 21 days before expiry, checked at hourly closes; naked. Gaps we filled: holiday entries/exits move to the next trading day, ATM = strike where call and put prices are closest, first check at 09:18 so overnight gaps fill at the open.

How was the 45-day NIFTY monthly short straddle backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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