HOLDS UP
Expiry-day ₹55 strangle with stop to cost
Option selling · NIFTY weekly (expiry day) · tested 2019-02 to 2026-10
The claim
Every year positive 2019-2026, about 66% win rate, max drawdown about 5.8%.
Our test, after costs
₹2.42 L
2019-02 to 2026-10 · 1 lot, lot size of the day
As taught, 1 lot made about ₹2.42 L net over 402 expiry days with a 66% win rate and drawdown under ₹10k.
Algrow Reality Score
- 40/40
- claim
- 30/30
- profit
- 30/30
- steady
- Net, full test
- ₹2.42 L
- Worst drawdown
- −₹9,558
- Trades
- 402
- Win rate
- 65.7%
Size: 1 lot, lot size of the day.
How our test compares with the video
Same 66% win rate; total about 128% on ₹2 L vs their ~130%, drawdown about 4.7% vs 5.8%, and 2026 is the weakest year in both.
Worth knowing: Naked; return on full exchange margin is modest (high single digits per year).
Underwater: how far below its best point the account was
If you had started with ₹1 lakh on…
Drag to pick a start date. Trading the video's rules at 1 lot, lot size of the day, not compounded. Weekly points.
2019-02-21
You'd have today
₹3.39 L
Profit / loss
+₹2.39 L
Lowest point
₹1.00 L
Honest note: ₹1 lakh may be less than the margin this needs; the result is in rupees per lot, not a % return.
Year by year — tap to dig in
1 lot, rules as taught, after costs. Tap a year, then a month.
Monthly heatmap
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2026 |
Winning vs losing days
402 days with a position · about 65% green
BEST DAY
₹8,104
2025-05-22
WORST DAY
−₹2,780
2019-04-25
The rules we tested
On weekly expiry day at 09:20 sell the call and put priced closest to ₹55. Each leg has a 50% stop; when one stops out, the other leg's stop moves to its entry price. Exit 15:29; naked. Gaps we filled: lot size of each date, about ₹2 L capital for % figures.
Method and Reality Score
1-minute data, next-minute-open fills, gapped stops filled at the open, real broker charges incl. STT and taxes plus slippage.
- 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
- Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
- Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
- Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.
Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).
Questions people ask
Does the Expiry-day ₹55 strangle with stop to cost strategy work?
In our test the rules as taught roughly hold up. As taught, 1 lot made about ₹2.42 L net over 402 expiry days with a 66% win rate and drawdown under ₹10k. Tested on NIFTY weekly (expiry day), 2019-02 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 100/100.
What is the win rate of the Expiry-day ₹55 strangle with stop to cost strategy after costs?
65.7% of 402 trades made money after real charges in our test (2019-02 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was ₹2.42 L with a worst drawdown of −₹9,558.
How much did it make or lose in the backtest?
Our test: ₹2.42 L after real costs. Over 2019-02 to 2026-10 (1 lot, lot size of the day), the net after charges was ₹2.42 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹9,558.
What exact rules were tested?
On weekly expiry day at 09:20 sell the call and put priced closest to ₹55. Each leg has a 50% stop; when one stops out, the other leg's stop moves to its entry price. Exit 15:29; naked. Gaps we filled: lot size of each date, about ₹2 L capital for % figures.
How was the Expiry-day ₹55 strangle with stop to cost backtest done?
On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.
Run it yourself
Opens our backtester with this video's rules as taught, ready to run. Change dates or stops and see what happens. Default charges are used, so totals can differ a little from this page.
Open with these rules
Got another video?
Send the link or vote on the queue. We code it as taught and publish what we find.
Request a fact check
Similar fact checks
- HOLDS UP97
45-day NIFTY monthly short straddle
₹4.11 L
- HALF TRUE79
Overnight 40-delta short strangle
₹2.46 L
- HALF TRUE77
Weekly ₹70 strangle 3 days to expiry with night hedge
₹2.02 L
- HALF TRUE72
Heikin-Ashi + MACD monthly credit spreads
₹2.04 L
- HALF TRUE69
5-min 20-SMA band intraday option selling
₹89,668
- HALF TRUE65
09:18 ATM short straddle with MTM lock
₹5.89 L
- HALF TRUE65
Monthly iron fly, 15 days before expiry
₹71,874
- BUSTED BY COSTS56
Next-week ₹25 strangle with stop to cost
₹78,197
Short version for search: Expiry-day ₹55 strangle with stop to cost backtest — does it work?
Get the next 5 fact checks first
One short note when new results are out. No spam, no tips, nothing to buy.