BUSTED BY COSTS

BANKNIFTY monthly iron fly with profit lock backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the banknifty monthly iron fly with profit lock strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on BANKNIFTY monthly, 2017-02 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: ₹24,512 after real costs. As taught, the rules made about ₹24.5k from Feb-2017 to Oct-2026, with a ₹1.31 lakh drawdown and a ₹78k loss in 2026.

Net after costs: ₹24,512
Win rate: —
Worst drawdown: −₹1.31 L
Reality Score: 37/100

The rules, as taught

Fifteen trading days before monthly expiry at 09:35, sell the ~0.50-delta call and put and buy wings priced near ₹25. Overall stop at 50% of net credit, profit lock of ₹9k once profit reaches ₹15k, and exit two trading days before expiry at 10:00. Assumptions: ATM chosen as the strike with the smallest call–put price gap; wing price read from the video's sheet.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: About ₹2.05 lakh over Jan-2024 to Nov-2025 with a max drawdown near ₹27k.

In the video's own window 20 of 23 months matched within a few hundred rupees, but our total was ₹1.01 lakh versus ₹2.05 lakh; the gap comes from three months (election day Jun-2024, the Apr-2025 gap open, and a near-touch stop in Sep-2025).

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the BANKNIFTY monthly iron fly with profit lock strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, the rules made about ₹24.5k from Feb-2017 to Oct-2026, with a ₹1.31 lakh drawdown and a ₹78k loss in 2026. Tested on BANKNIFTY monthly, 2017-02 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 37/100.

What is the win rate of the BANKNIFTY monthly iron fly with profit lock strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was ₹24,512 with a worst drawdown of −₹1.31 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: ₹24,512 after real costs. Over 2017-02 to 2026-10 (1 lot (lot size of the day)), the net after charges was ₹24,512 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹1.31 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the BANKNIFTY monthly iron fly with profit lock backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.