Algrow
All fact checks

HALF TRUE

Strong-candle breakout at set times backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the strong-candle breakout at set times strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY weekly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: ₹1.55 L after real costs. As taught on NIFTY, the rule made about ₹1.55 lakh per lot from 2017 to Oct 2026 after costs, with 3 losing years.

Net after costs
₹1.55 L
Win rate
30.8%
Worst drawdown
−₹45,980
Reality Score
71/100

The rules, as taught

On the 10:40, 10:50 and 14:55 5-min candles with a body ≥ 80% of range, a break of a green candle's high buys a 2-ITM call and a break of a red candle's low buys a 2-ITM put. Stop at the candle's other end on the index, no target, exit 15:15. We assumed the break must come on the next candle.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: About 3,000–4,000% simulated return (on index points; report not shown).

The percentage claim cannot be checked (no report or capital shown, index points not option P&L); a real but modest edge exists on NIFTY, far smaller than the claim, and BANKNIFTY lost in 2025–26.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the Strong-candle breakout at set times strategy work?

Partly. As taught on NIFTY, the rule made about ₹1.55 lakh per lot from 2017 to Oct 2026 after costs, with 3 losing years. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 71/100.

What is the win rate of the Strong-candle breakout at set times strategy after costs?

30.8% of 835 trades made money after real charges in our test (2017-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was ₹1.55 L with a worst drawdown of −₹45,980.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: ₹1.55 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot), the net after charges was ₹1.55 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹45,980.

What exact rules were tested?

On the 10:40, 10:50 and 14:55 5-min candles with a body ≥ 80% of range, a break of a green candle's high buys a 2-ITM call and a break of a red candle's low buys a 2-ITM put. Stop at the candle's other end on the index, no target, exit 15:15. We assumed the break must come on the next candle.

How was the Strong-candle breakout at set times backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

Related strategy backtests

Get the next 5 fact checks first

One short note when new results are out. No spam, no tips, nothing to buy.