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Supertrend + EMA 50 call buying (₹200 premium) backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the supertrend + ema 50 call buying (₹200 premium) strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY weekly, 2019-03 to 2026-10, with real charges. Claimed ₹2.95 L. Reality ₹1.83 L. The 2019–22 numbers reproduce, but after real costs the same rules lost money in every year from 2023 to 2026.

Net after costs: ₹73,691
Win rate: —
Worst drawdown: −₹1.30 L
Reality Score: 49/100

The rules, as taught

On 3-minute NIFTY futures, buy 1 lot of the weekly call nearest ₹200 when the close crosses above Supertrend(10,3) and is above the 50 EMA. Exit when the close crosses back below Supertrend or at 15:00. Trades 09:15–15:00, at most 3 a day, calls only, no stop or target.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: About ₹2.95 L net from Mar 2019 to May 2022 on 920 trades, 43% wins, max drawdown about ₹21.6k.

On their window, before costs, we got 930 trades and 43.4% wins vs their 920 and 43.2%, and ₹2.48 L at their lot size vs their ₹2.95 L. Even before costs the rules are roughly flat from 2023.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the Supertrend + EMA 50 call buying strategy work?

Partly. The 2019–22 numbers reproduce, but after real costs the same rules lost money in every year from 2023 to 2026. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2019-03 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 49/100.

What is the win rate of the Supertrend + EMA 50 call buying strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was ₹73,691 with a worst drawdown of −₹1.30 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Claimed ₹2.95 L. Reality ₹1.83 L. Over 2019-03 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was ₹73,691 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹1.30 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the Supertrend + EMA 50 call buying backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.