BUSTED BY COSTS

Overnight premium range breakout (4–5 days to expiry) backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the overnight premium range breakout (4–5 days to expiry) strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY weekly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: −₹35,574 after real costs. Over 2017–2026 the exact rules lost about ₹35.6k per lot with 1% slippage, with a drawdown of about ₹1.3 L.

Net after costs: −₹35,574
Win rate: —
Worst drawdown: −₹1.30 L
Reality Score: 18/100

The rules, as taught

At 14:30 pick the ATM call and put; each option's range is its high from 14:30 to 09:17 next day, and a leg is bought when it breaks that high. Position stop ₹4,550, profit lock from ₹1,000 up, exit 14:30; traded only on expiry day and the day after.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: About ₹92k net on 1 lot, Jan 2024 to Feb 2026, 70% wins.

On their window we got ₹86k vs their ₹92k (within about 6%) using their flat lot size; with real lot sizes it was ₹63k.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the Overnight premium range breakout strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. Over 2017–2026 the exact rules lost about ₹35.6k per lot with 1% slippage, with a drawdown of about ₹1.3 L. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the Overnight premium range breakout strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹35,574 with a worst drawdown of −₹1.30 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹35,574 after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was −₹35,574 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹1.30 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the Overnight premium range breakout backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.