BUSTED BY COSTS

Monthly-expiry 14:50 candle cheap option buy backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the monthly-expiry 14:50 candle cheap option buy strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY + BANKNIFTY monthly expiry, 2017-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: −₹10.88 L after real costs. As taught, the rule lost about ₹10.9 lakh over 2017–2026, losing in every year.

Net after costs: −₹10.88 L
Win rate: 37.6%
Worst drawdown: −₹10.88 L
Reality Score: 8/100

The rules, as taught

On monthly expiry day, the 14:50–14:55 spot candle sets direction: green buys a call, red buys a put, choosing an out-of-the-money strike expiring that day priced under ₹2 (NIFTY) or ₹10 (BANKNIFTY). Sell at 2× or at 15:25. We assumed the nearest qualifying strike, ₹10,000 premium per trade, and shifted times by 10 minutes after the Aug-2026 session change.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: Hand-picked example trades doubling cheap expiry options; no backtest shown.

The video shows only examples, so there is no total to match; over 221 qualifying expiry days the rule lost even before costs (gross about −₹4.5 lakh).

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the Monthly-expiry 14:50 candle cheap option buy strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, the rule lost about ₹10.9 lakh over 2017–2026, losing in every year. Tested on NIFTY + BANKNIFTY monthly expiry, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 8/100.

What is the win rate of the Monthly-expiry 14:50 candle cheap option buy strategy after costs?

37.6% of 221 trades made money after real charges in our test (2017-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was −₹10.88 L with a worst drawdown of −₹10.88 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹10.88 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (₹10,000 premium per trade), the net after charges was −₹10.88 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹10.88 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the Monthly-expiry 14:50 candle cheap option buy backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.