BUSTED BY COSTS

Monthly-expiry 14:50 candle cheap option buy

Option buying · NIFTY + BANKNIFTY monthly expiry · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10

The claim

Hand-picked example trades doubling cheap expiry options; no backtest shown.

Our test, after costs

−₹10.88 L

2017-01 to 2026-10 · ₹10,000 premium per trade

As taught, the rule lost about ₹10.9 lakh over 2017–2026, losing in every year.

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim: 0/30
profit: 0/30
steady

Net, full test: −₹10.88 L
Worst drawdown: −₹10.88 L
Trades: 221
Win rate: 37.6%

Size: ₹10,000 premium per trade.

Watch the video

WhatsApp Post on X

How our test compares with the video

The video shows only examples, so there is no total to match; over 221 qualifying expiry days the rule lost even before costs (gross about −₹4.5 lakh).

Worth knowing: Per-lot brokerage on very cheap options is a large share of premium; rules taken from a written summary of the video.

Equity curve — rules as taught, after costs2026-10-27 · −₹10.88 L · −₹10.88 L from peak

Underwater: how far below its best point the account was

2017-01-12worst −₹10.88 L2026-10-27

If you had started with ₹1 lakh on…

Drag to pick a start date. Trading the video's rules at ₹10,000 premium per trade, not compounded. Weekly points.

2017-01-12

You'd have today

−₹9.71 L

Profit / loss

−₹10.71 L

Lowest point

−₹9.71 L

⚠️ The account would have been wiped out at some point — ₹1 lakh was not enough to survive the drawdown.

Year by year — tap to dig in

1 lot, rules as taught, after costs. Tap a year, then a month.

Monthly heatmap

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026

Winning vs losing days

124 days with a position · about 26% green

−₹29k₹0₹29k+

BEST DAY

₹15,927

2021-03-25

WORST DAY

−₹30,598

2018-12-27

The rules we tested

On monthly expiry day, the 14:50–14:55 spot candle sets direction: green buys a call, red buys a put, choosing an out-of-the-money strike expiring that day priced under ₹2 (NIFTY) or ₹10 (BANKNIFTY). Sell at 2× or at 15:25. We assumed the nearest qualifying strike, ₹10,000 premium per trade, and shifted times by 10 minutes after the Aug-2026 session change.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-min data, buys only at minutes with real trades, real broker charges incl. taxes, ₹0.05 slippage each side.

1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the Monthly-expiry 14:50 candle cheap option buy strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught, the rule lost about ₹10.9 lakh over 2017–2026, losing in every year. Tested on NIFTY + BANKNIFTY monthly expiry, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 8/100.

What is the win rate of the Monthly-expiry 14:50 candle cheap option buy strategy after costs?

37.6% of 221 trades made money after real charges in our test (2017-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was −₹10.88 L with a worst drawdown of −₹10.88 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹10.88 L after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (₹10,000 premium per trade), the net after charges was −₹10.88 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹10.88 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the Monthly-expiry 14:50 candle cheap option buy backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

Got another video?

Send the link or vote on the queue. We code it as taught and publish what we find.

Request a fact check

Similar fact checks

Short version for search: Monthly-expiry 14:50 candle cheap option buy backtest — does it work?

Get the next 5 fact checks first

One short note when new results are out. No spam, no tips, nothing to buy.

Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.