BUSTED BY COSTS

Overnight premium range breakout (4–5 days to expiry)

Option buying · NIFTY weekly · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10

The claim

About ₹92k net on 1 lot, Jan 2024 to Feb 2026, 70% wins.

Our test, after costs

−₹35,574

2017-01 to 2026-10 · 1 lot, historical lot sizes

Over 2017–2026 the exact rules lost about ₹35.6k per lot with 1% slippage, with a drawdown of about ₹1.3 L.

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim: 0/30
profit: 10/30
steady

Net, full test: −₹35,574
Worst drawdown: −₹1.30 L
Trades: —
Win rate: —

Size: 1 lot, historical lot sizes.

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How our test compares with the video

On their window we got ₹86k vs their ₹92k (within about 6%) using their flat lot size; with real lot sizes it was ₹63k.

Worth knowing: Restricting to these two days was chosen after an all-days version lost money; the longer history does not support it.

The rules we tested

At 14:30 pick the ATM call and put; each option's range is its high from 14:30 to 09:17 next day, and a leg is bought when it breaks that high. Position stop ₹4,550, profit lock from ₹1,000 up, exit 14:30; traded only on expiry day and the day after.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-minute option data, broker charges incl. STT and taxes, 1% slippage per order, historical lot sizes.

1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the Overnight premium range breakout strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. Over 2017–2026 the exact rules lost about ₹35.6k per lot with 1% slippage, with a drawdown of about ₹1.3 L. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the Overnight premium range breakout strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹35,574 with a worst drawdown of −₹1.30 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹35,574 after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was −₹35,574 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹1.30 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the Overnight premium range breakout backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Send the link or vote on the queue. We code it as taught and publish what we find.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.