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ITM ₹180 premium breakout

Option buying · NIFTY weekly · tested 2017-01 to 2026-10

The claim

A 70–75% win rate.

Our test, after costs

−₹39,769

2017-01 to 2026-10 · 1 lot

From 2017 to Oct 2026 the as-taught rules won 43% of 1,315 trades and lost about ₹39.8k per lot after costs.

18BUSTED

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim
0/30
profit
10/30
steady
Net, full test
−₹39,769
Worst drawdown
−₹67,402
Trades
1,315
Win rate
43.2%

Size: 1 lot.

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How our test compares with the video

The video shows no backtest; our engine reproduced its live example days (same strikes and entry times), but the win rate came out at 43%, not 70–75%.

Worth knowing: Before costs the result is roughly break-even; costs of about ₹55 per trade decide it.

The rules we tested

At 09:25 mark the in-the-money call and put nearest ₹180; from 09:30 buy whichever crosses ₹180 first, stop 20 points, target 40 points, exit 09:45. 'Sustaining above' was not defined, so we used a touch; we assumed a last entry at 09:40.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-minute option data, broker charges incl. STT and taxes, 0.25% slippage per order, 1 lot.

  • 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
  • Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
  • Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
  • Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the ITM ₹180 premium breakout strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. From 2017 to Oct 2026 the as-taught rules won 43% of 1,315 trades and lost about ₹39.8k per lot after costs. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the ITM ₹180 premium breakout strategy after costs?

43.2% of 1,315 trades made money after real charges in our test (2017-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was −₹39,769 with a worst drawdown of −₹67,402.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹39,769 after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot), the net after charges was −₹39,769 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹67,402.

What exact rules were tested?

At 09:25 mark the in-the-money call and put nearest ₹180; from 09:30 buy whichever crosses ₹180 first, stop 20 points, target 40 points, exit 09:45. 'Sustaining above' was not defined, so we used a touch; we assumed a last entry at 09:40.

How was the ITM ₹180 premium breakout backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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