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ITM ₹180 premium breakout backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the itm ₹180 premium breakout strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY weekly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: −₹39,769 after real costs. From 2017 to Oct 2026 the as-taught rules won 43% of 1,315 trades and lost about ₹39.8k per lot after costs.

Net after costs: −₹39,769
Win rate: 43.2%
Worst drawdown: −₹67,402
Reality Score: 18/100

The rules, as taught

At 09:25 mark the in-the-money call and put nearest ₹180; from 09:30 buy whichever crosses ₹180 first, stop 20 points, target 40 points, exit 09:45. 'Sustaining above' was not defined, so we used a touch; we assumed a last entry at 09:40.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: A 70–75% win rate.

The video shows no backtest; our engine reproduced its live example days (same strikes and entry times), but the win rate came out at 43%, not 70–75%.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the ITM ₹180 premium breakout strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. From 2017 to Oct 2026 the as-taught rules won 43% of 1,315 trades and lost about ₹39.8k per lot after costs. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2017-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the ITM ₹180 premium breakout strategy after costs?

43.2% of 1,315 trades made money after real charges in our test (2017-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was −₹39,769 with a worst drawdown of −₹67,402.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹39,769 after real costs. Over 2017-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot), the net after charges was −₹39,769 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹67,402.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the ITM ₹180 premium breakout backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.