BUSTED BY COSTS

15-min two-colour range breakdown backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the 15-min two-colour range breakdown strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on NIFTY weekly, 2019-01 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: −₹1.55 L after real costs. The index-point edge reproduces, but as an ATM put buy the rule lost about ₹1.55 lakh per lot from 2019 to Oct 2026.

Net after costs: −₹1.55 L
Win rate: —
Worst drawdown: −₹2.42 L
Reality Score: 18/100

The rules, as taught

Two back-to-back opposite-colour 15-min candles form a range; within two candles, a close below the range low is a short (we bought an ATM put). Stop at range high, target 3× risk, else exit at day end, max 2 trades/day. No strike was given; the video counts index points only.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: +2,463 NIFTY points over 399 trades (Dec 2024 – Apr 2026).

In index points we got +2,105 over 388 trades vs their +2,463 over 399, with most early trades matching to 0.1 point.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the 15-min two-colour range breakdown strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. The index-point edge reproduces, but as an ATM put buy the rule lost about ₹1.55 lakh per lot from 2019 to Oct 2026. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2019-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the 15-min two-colour range breakdown strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹1.55 L with a worst drawdown of −₹2.42 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹1.55 L after real costs. Over 2019-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot), the net after charges was −₹1.55 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹2.42 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the 15-min two-colour range breakdown backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.