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BUSTED BY COSTS

15-min two-colour range breakdown

Option buying · NIFTY weekly · tested 2019-01 to 2026-10

The claim

+2,463 NIFTY points over 399 trades (Dec 2024 – Apr 2026).

Our test, after costs

−₹1.55 L

2019-01 to 2026-10 · 1 lot

The index-point edge reproduces, but as an ATM put buy the rule lost about ₹1.55 lakh per lot from 2019 to Oct 2026.

18BUSTED

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim
0/30
profit
10/30
steady
Net, full test
−₹1.55 L
Worst drawdown
−₹2.42 L
Trades
—
Win rate
—

Size: 1 lot.

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How our test compares with the video

In index points we got +2,105 over 388 trades vs their +2,463 over 399, with most early trades matching to 0.1 point.

Worth knowing: About 6 points per trade is too small to survive option decay and costs.

The rules we tested

Two back-to-back opposite-colour 15-min candles form a range; within two candles, a close below the range low is a short (we bought an ATM put). Stop at range high, target 3× risk, else exit at day end, max 2 trades/day. No strike was given; the video counts index points only.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-min data, fills at the next minute's open, real broker charges incl. STT and taxes, 0.25% slippage.

  • 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
  • Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
  • Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
  • Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the 15-min two-colour range breakdown strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. The index-point edge reproduces, but as an ATM put buy the rule lost about ₹1.55 lakh per lot from 2019 to Oct 2026. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2019-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the 15-min two-colour range breakdown strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹1.55 L with a worst drawdown of −₹2.42 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹1.55 L after real costs. Over 2019-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot), the net after charges was −₹1.55 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹2.42 L.

What exact rules were tested?

Two back-to-back opposite-colour 15-min candles form a range; within two candles, a close below the range low is a short (we bought an ATM put). Stop at range high, target 3× risk, else exit at day end, max 2 trades/day. No strike was given; the video counts index points only.

How was the 15-min two-colour range breakdown backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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