Algrow
All fact checks

BUSTED BY COSTS

First 30-second candle breakout

Option buying · NIFTY + SENSEX weekly · tested 2020-01 to 2026-10

The claim

Two winning stock-option examples; no backtest shown.

Our test, after costs

−₹62,800

2020-01 to 2026-10 · 1 lot (NIFTY)

As taught on NIFTY the rule lost about ₹62.8k per lot from 2020 to 2026 despite a 59% win rate.

18BUSTED

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim
0/30
profit
10/30
steady
Net, full test
−₹62,800
Worst drawdown
−₹72,700
Trades
955
Win rate
58.7%

Size: 1 lot (NIFTY).

Watch the video
WhatsAppPost on X

How our test compares with the video

There is no total to compare; small +10% wins did not cover time-exit losses and costs. SENSEX (2024–26) also lost about ₹22.3k.

Worth knowing: The video says the method is meant for stock options rather than indices.

The rules we tested

The 9:15:00–9:15:29 candle's colour picks an ATM call (green) or put (red); buy when the option breaks its own first-30-second high, target +10%, exit by 9:30, no stop stated. Taught for stock options; we applied it to the indices with instant fills on the break.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-second tick data, instant stop-order fills from 9:15:30, real broker charges incl. STT and taxes, 0.25% slippage.

  • 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
  • Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
  • Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
  • Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the First 30-second candle breakout strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught on NIFTY the rule lost about ₹62.8k per lot from 2020 to 2026 despite a 59% win rate. Tested on NIFTY + SENSEX weekly, 2020-01 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the First 30-second candle breakout strategy after costs?

58.7% of 955 trades made money after real charges in our test (2020-01 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was −₹62,800 with a worst drawdown of −₹72,700.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹62,800 after real costs. Over 2020-01 to 2026-10 (1 lot (NIFTY)), the net after charges was −₹62,800 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹72,700.

What exact rules were tested?

The 9:15:00–9:15:29 candle's colour picks an ATM call (green) or put (red); buy when the option breaks its own first-30-second high, target +10%, exit by 9:30, no stop stated. Taught for stock options; we applied it to the indices with instant fills on the break.

How was the First 30-second candle breakout backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

Got another video?

Send the link or vote on the queue. We code it as taught and publish what we find.

Request a fact check

Similar fact checks

Short version for search: First 30-second candle breakout backtest — does it work?

Get the next 5 fact checks first

One short note when new results are out. No spam, no tips, nothing to buy.