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BUSTED BY COSTS

Opening candle vs VWAP direction

Option buying · NIFTY weekly · tested 2019-02 to 2026-10

The claim

About +4,900 NIFTY points over 6+ years in futures, before costs.

Our test, after costs

−₹80,000

2019-02 to 2026-10 · 1 lot

As taught with ATM weekly options, the rule lost about ₹80,000 per lot from 2019 to Oct 2026 after costs.

18BUSTED

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim
0/30
profit
10/30
steady
Net, full test
−₹80,000
Worst drawdown
—
Trades
—
Win rate
—

Size: 1 lot.

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How our test compares with the video

In futures points we got +4,249 vs their +4,918 with nearly identical trade count (1,631 vs 1,628) and win rate (30.5% vs 30.6%); almost all of the edge came from 2020–22.

Worth knowing: Gross option profit (~₹92k) is consumed by costs; every year from 2023 is negative.

The rules we tested

On NIFTY futures 5-min candles, if the 9:25 candle closes above VWAP go long (buy ATM call), below go short (buy ATM put); exit when a 5-min candle closes back across VWAP or at 15:15. One trade a day. The video tested futures points without costs; we traded it with ATM weekly options.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-min data, 5-min candles, fills at the next minute's open, real broker charges incl. STT and taxes.

  • 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
  • Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
  • Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
  • Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the Opening candle vs VWAP direction strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. As taught with ATM weekly options, the rule lost about ₹80,000 per lot from 2019 to Oct 2026 after costs. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2019-02 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the Opening candle vs VWAP direction strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹80,000 with a worst drawdown of —.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹80,000 after real costs. Over 2019-02 to 2026-10 (1 lot), the net after charges was −₹80,000 and the worst fall from a peak was —.

What exact rules were tested?

On NIFTY futures 5-min candles, if the 9:25 candle closes above VWAP go long (buy ATM call), below go short (buy ATM put); exit when a 5-min candle closes back across VWAP or at 15:15. One trade a day. The video tested futures points without costs; we traded it with ATM weekly options.

How was the Opening candle vs VWAP direction backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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