HALF TRUE
Supertrend + EMA 50 call buying (₹200 premium)
Option buying · NIFTY weekly · tested 2019-03 to 2026-10
The claim
₹2.95 L
About ₹2.95 L net from Mar 2019 to May 2022 on 920 trades, 43% wins, max drawdown about ₹21.6k.
Reality, same dates, after costs
₹1.83 L
2019-03 to 2022-05 · 62% of the claim found
The 2019–22 numbers reproduce, but after real costs the same rules lost money in every year from 2023 to 2026.
Algrow Reality Score
- 25/40
- claim
- 12/30
- profit
- 12/30
- steady
- Net, full test
- ₹73,691
- Worst drawdown
- −₹1.30 L
- Trades
- 2,187
- Win rate
- —
Size: 1 lot, historical lot sizes.
How our test compares with the video
On their window, before costs, we got 930 trades and 43.4% wins vs their 920 and 43.2%, and ₹2.48 L at their lot size vs their ₹2.95 L. Even before costs the rules are roughly flat from 2023.
Worth knowing: Costs took about ₹2.4 L of the ₹3.16 L gross over the full period. The claimed window was a strong trending stretch.
Underwater: how far below its best point the account was
If you had started with ₹1 lakh on…
Drag to pick a start date. Trading the video's rules at 1 lot, historical lot sizes, not compounded. Weekly points.
2019-03-15
You'd have today
₹1.64 L
Profit / loss
+₹63,913
Lowest point
₹76,813
Honest note: ₹1 lakh may be less than the margin this needs; the result is in rupees per lot, not a % return.
What costs did to it
2019-03 to 2026-10, 1 lot.
- Before costs₹3.2L
- Charges, STT & slippage−₹2.4L
- What you keep₹74k
Costs ate 77% of the profit before costs.
Year by year — tap to dig in
1 lot, rules as taught, after costs. Tap a year, then a month.
Monthly heatmap
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
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| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2026 |
Winning vs losing days
1,509 days with a position · about 52% green
BEST DAY
₹41,176
2019-09-20
WORST DAY
−₹13,142
2025-01-21
The rules we tested
On 3-minute NIFTY futures, buy 1 lot of the weekly call nearest ₹200 when the close crosses above Supertrend(10,3) and is above the 50 EMA. Exit when the close crosses back below Supertrend or at 15:00. Trades 09:15–15:00, at most 3 a day, calls only, no stop or target.
Method and Reality Score
3-minute signals from 1-minute futures data, next-minute-open fills, broker charges incl. STT and taxes, 0.25% slippage per order, historical lot sizes.
- 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
- Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
- Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
- Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.
Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).
Questions people ask
Does the Supertrend + EMA 50 call buying strategy work?
Partly. The 2019–22 numbers reproduce, but after real costs the same rules lost money in every year from 2023 to 2026. Tested on NIFTY weekly, 2019-03 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 49/100.
What is the win rate of the Supertrend + EMA 50 call buying strategy after costs?
We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was ₹73,691 with a worst drawdown of −₹1.30 L.
How much did it make or lose in the backtest?
Claimed ₹2.95 L. Reality ₹1.83 L. Over 2019-03 to 2026-10 (1 lot, historical lot sizes), the net after charges was ₹73,691 and the worst fall from a peak was −₹1.30 L.
What exact rules were tested?
On 3-minute NIFTY futures, buy 1 lot of the weekly call nearest ₹200 when the close crosses above Supertrend(10,3) and is above the 50 EMA. Exit when the close crosses back below Supertrend or at 15:00. Trades 09:15–15:00, at most 3 a day, calls only, no stop or target.
How was the Supertrend + EMA 50 call buying backtest done?
On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.
Run it yourself — coming soon
These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.
Got another video?
Send the link or vote on the queue. We code it as taught and publish what we find.
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