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SENSEX expiry-day premium range breakout backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the sensex expiry-day premium range breakout strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on SENSEX weekly (expiry day), 2024-05 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: ₹17,219 after real costs. With realistic fills, the as-taught call and put sides together made about ₹17.2k per lot from May 2024 to Oct 2026, with the call side near zero.

Net after costs: ₹17,219
Win rate: —
Worst drawdown: —
Reality Score: 33/100

The rules, as taught

On expiry day pick the ATM call and put at 09:16; each option's range is its high from 09:16 to 10:45 (call) or 10:35 (put), bought on a break of that high. Each side has a ₹1,950 max loss, ₹3,250 target and a ₹650 lock after ₹1,300 profit, exit 15:15; the fill model was not stated.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: Over May 2025–May 2026 on 1 lot: calls about ₹20.7k (70% wins), puts about ₹9k–15.7k.

Filling exactly at the breakout price as their tester does, we matched their trade counts and win rate and got more than their call profit; with fills at the next minute's open the call side fell to ₹15.9k and the put side to −₹2.2k on their window.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the SENSEX expiry-day premium range breakout strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. With realistic fills, the as-taught call and put sides together made about ₹17.2k per lot from May 2024 to Oct 2026, with the call side near zero. Tested on SENSEX weekly (expiry day), 2024-05 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 33/100.

What is the win rate of the SENSEX expiry-day premium range breakout strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was ₹17,219 with a worst drawdown of —.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: ₹17,219 after real costs. Over 2024-05 to 2026-10 (1 lot (20 units) per side), the net after charges was ₹17,219 and the worst fall from a peak was —.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the SENSEX expiry-day premium range breakout backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.