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SENSEX expiry-day premium range breakout

Option buying · SENSEX weekly (expiry day) · tested 2024-05 to 2026-10

The claim

Over May 2025–May 2026 on 1 lot: calls about ₹20.7k (70% wins), puts about ₹9k–15.7k.

Our test, after costs

₹17,219

2024-05 to 2026-10 · 1 lot (20 units) per side

With realistic fills, the as-taught call and put sides together made about ₹17.2k per lot from May 2024 to Oct 2026, with the call side near zero.

33WEAK

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim
15/30
profit
10/30
steady
Net, full test
₹17,219
Worst drawdown
—
Trades
109
Win rate
—

Size: 1 lot (20 units) per side.

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How our test compares with the video

Filling exactly at the breakout price as their tester does, we matched their trade counts and win rate and got more than their call profit; with fills at the next minute's open the call side fell to ₹15.9k and the put side to −₹2.2k on their window.

Worth knowing: Call side ₹826 (max DD −₹21k), put side ₹16.4k (max DD −₹13.4k) over 126 expiry days.

The rules we tested

On expiry day pick the ATM call and put at 09:16; each option's range is its high from 09:16 to 10:45 (call) or 10:35 (put), bought on a break of that high. Each side has a ₹1,950 max loss, ₹3,250 target and a ₹650 lock after ₹1,300 profit, exit 15:15; the fill model was not stated.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-minute option data, signal on candle close and fill at the next minute's open, broker charges incl. STT and taxes, 0.25% slippage per order.

  • 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
  • Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
  • Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
  • Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the SENSEX expiry-day premium range breakout strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. With realistic fills, the as-taught call and put sides together made about ₹17.2k per lot from May 2024 to Oct 2026, with the call side near zero. Tested on SENSEX weekly (expiry day), 2024-05 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 33/100.

What is the win rate of the SENSEX expiry-day premium range breakout strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was ₹17,219 with a worst drawdown of —.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: ₹17,219 after real costs. Over 2024-05 to 2026-10 (1 lot (20 units) per side), the net after charges was ₹17,219 and the worst fall from a peak was —.

What exact rules were tested?

On expiry day pick the ATM call and put at 09:16; each option's range is its high from 09:16 to 10:45 (call) or 10:35 (put), bought on a break of that high. Each side has a ₹1,950 max loss, ₹3,250 target and a ₹650 lock after ₹1,300 profit, exit 15:15; the fill model was not stated.

How was the SENSEX expiry-day premium range breakout backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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