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BUSTED BY COSTS

Last-hour premium momentum buying

Option buying · SENSEX weekly (expiry day) · tested 2024-05 to 2026-10

The claim

Expiry days, 10 lots: about ₹68k (2023), ₹1.96 L (2024), ₹2.08 L (2025), ₹2.34 L (2026 to Sep), drawdown about ₹73k.

Our test, after costs

−₹1.46 L

2024-05 to 2026-10 · 10 lots

With fills at the next minute's open and real costs, the as-taught expiry-day rules lost about ₹1.46 L on 10 lots from mid-2024 to Oct 2026.

18BUSTED

Algrow Reality Score

8/40
claim
0/30
profit
10/30
steady
Net, full test
−₹1.46 L
Worst drawdown
−₹1.83 L
Trades
—
Win rate
—

Size: 10 lots.

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How our test compares with the video

Only by filling exactly at trigger and stop levels even when price jumps past them did we get close (₹4.6 L vs their larger total over a longer window); with level-or-worse fills it fell to about ₹1 L.

Worth knowing: The result depends almost entirely on how fast a stop-buy order fills.

The rules we tested

At 14:30 pick the cheapest call and put at or above ₹100; buy a side only after it rises 19% from the 14:30 price, stop 10%, trail 1% per 1%, up to 6 re-entries, exit 15:25. Each side runs independently; how re-entry picks a strike was unclear, so we tested several readings.

Method and Reality Score

Full method: how we test

1-minute option data (SENSEX options from May 2024), fills at the next minute's open, broker charges incl. STT and taxes, slippage per order.

  • 1-minute historical NSE/BSE option and futures data; each video's rules coded exactly as taught, with stated assumptions where the video left a gap.
  • Signals on a candle's close are filled at the next minute's open (unless the rules say otherwise); stops and targets are checked against each minute's high and low.
  • Real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST deducted on every order; lot size as it was on each trade date.
  • Results are per lot unless stated. No leverage, compounding or position sizing beyond the video's own rules.

Reality Score (0–100) = claim match (up to 40: matches 40, partly 25, fails after costs 8, not reproduced 0) + after-cost profit (up to 30: zero if it loses; more when total profit is large versus the worst drawdown) + steadiness (up to 30: share of profitable years, plus 5 if the latest year made money).

Questions people ask

Does the Last-hour premium momentum buying strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. With fills at the next minute's open and real costs, the as-taught expiry-day rules lost about ₹1.46 L on 10 lots from mid-2024 to Oct 2026. Tested on SENSEX weekly (expiry day), 2024-05 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the Last-hour premium momentum buying strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹1.46 L with a worst drawdown of −₹1.83 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹1.46 L after real costs. Over 2024-05 to 2026-10 (10 lots), the net after charges was −₹1.46 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹1.83 L.

What exact rules were tested?

At 14:30 pick the cheapest call and put at or above ₹100; buy a side only after it rises 19% from the 14:30 price, stop 10%, trail 1% per 1%, up to 6 re-entries, exit 15:25. Each side runs independently; how re-entry picks a strike was unclear, so we tested several readings.

How was the Last-hour premium momentum buying backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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