BUSTED BY COSTS

Last-hour premium momentum buying backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the last-hour premium momentum buying strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on SENSEX weekly (expiry day), 2024-05 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: −₹1.46 L after real costs. With fills at the next minute's open and real costs, the as-taught expiry-day rules lost about ₹1.46 L on 10 lots from mid-2024 to Oct 2026.

Net after costs: −₹1.46 L
Win rate: —
Worst drawdown: −₹1.83 L
Reality Score: 18/100

The rules, as taught

At 14:30 pick the cheapest call and put at or above ₹100; buy a side only after it rises 19% from the 14:30 price, stop 10%, trail 1% per 1%, up to 6 re-entries, exit 15:25. Each side runs independently; how re-entry picks a strike was unclear, so we tested several readings.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: Expiry days, 10 lots: about ₹68k (2023), ₹1.96 L (2024), ₹2.08 L (2025), ₹2.34 L (2026 to Sep), drawdown about ₹73k.

Only by filling exactly at trigger and stop levels even when price jumps past them did we get close (₹4.6 L vs their larger total over a longer window); with level-or-worse fills it fell to about ₹1 L.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the Last-hour premium momentum buying strategy work?

Not as taught, once real charges are included. With fills at the next minute's open and real costs, the as-taught expiry-day rules lost about ₹1.46 L on 10 lots from mid-2024 to Oct 2026. Tested on SENSEX weekly (expiry day), 2024-05 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 18/100.

What is the win rate of the Last-hour premium momentum buying strategy after costs?

We did not count a per-trade win rate for this one; the net result after real charges was −₹1.46 L with a worst drawdown of −₹1.83 L.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: −₹1.46 L after real costs. Over 2024-05 to 2026-10 (10 lots), the net after charges was −₹1.46 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹1.83 L.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the Last-hour premium momentum buying backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself — coming soon

These rules use features our public backtester can't express exactly yet, so we won't pre-fill an approximation. Build your own idea in the meantime.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.