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SENSEX opening premium range breakout backtest: does it work after costs?

We coded the sensex opening premium range breakout strategy exactly as taught in a public video and ran it on SENSEX weekly, 2024-05 to 2026-10, with real charges. Our test: ₹1.36 L after real costs. From May 2024 to Oct 2026 the as-taught rules made about ₹1.36 L per lot, but 2025 lost money and the drawdown was about ₹50k.

Net after costs: ₹1.36 L
Win rate: 44.0%
Worst drawdown: −₹50,277
Reality Score: 68/100

The rules, as taught

At 09:30 pick the ATM call and put; each leg's range is its premium high from 09:30 to 11:00, and the leg is bought on a break of that high. Stop 35% below entry, trailed 0.75% per 1% move, exit 15:15; we assumed a last entry at 15:00 and ATM by the cash index.

What the video claims, and what we found

Claim: About ₹1 L gross over roughly one year (Dec 2023–Dec 2024), 188 trades, 48% wins, max drawdown about ₹9.6k.

Our data overlaps only Jun–Dec 2024: 4 of 7 months matched closely and win rate and drawdown matched, but the total was ₹28.7k vs about ₹47.5k.

See the full results, charts and every trade

Questions people ask

Does the SENSEX opening premium range breakout strategy work?

Partly. From May 2024 to Oct 2026 the as-taught rules made about ₹1.36 L per lot, but 2025 lost money and the drawdown was about ₹50k. Tested on SENSEX weekly, 2024-05 to 2026-10, after real costs. Reality Score 68/100.

What is the win rate of the SENSEX opening premium range breakout strategy after costs?

44.0% of 556 trades made money after real charges in our test (2024-05 to 2026-10). A high or low win rate alone says little; the net result was ₹1.36 L with a worst drawdown of −₹50,277.

How much did it make or lose in the backtest?

Our test: ₹1.36 L after real costs. Over 2024-05 to 2026-10 (1 lot (10→20 units)), the net after charges was ₹1.36 L and the worst fall from a peak was −₹50,277.

What exact rules were tested?

How was the SENSEX opening premium range breakout backtest done?

On 1-minute exchange data since 2017, signals filled at the next minute's open, with real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, SEBI fee, stamp duty and GST, and the lot size of each date. Rules exactly as taught; gaps we had to fill are stated. Full method on our How we test page.

Run it yourself

Opens our backtester with this video's rules as taught, ready to run. Change dates or stops and see what happens. Default charges are used, so totals can differ a little from this page.

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Important

These are educational backtests of publicly taught rules, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Algrow is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Past results, real or simulated, do not predict future results; option trading can lose more than the premium or margin used.

Method: 1-minute historical exchange data; signals filled at the next minute's open unless the rules say otherwise; real broker charges, STT, exchange fees, stamp duty and GST; lot size as on each trade date. Where a video leaves a rule open, the assumption we made is stated. We test only the rules as presented and paraphrase the claim; watch the video for the creator's full explanation. Full method: how we test.

Creators can request a review or correction: write to [email protected] with the page link and what you believe is wrong. We will re-run the test and update the page.